The initial phase of the Sweet 16 is now determined. Sixteen teams will vie for one of the last eight spots in the subsequent weekend of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament as the second round unfolds on Sunday.
Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf, ESPN’s collegiate basketball journalists, elaborate on the crucial elements for each squad to progress.
All times Eastern.
12:10 p.m., CBS
Purdue’s Path to the Sweet 16: Purdue’s victory hinges on Braden Smith (who recorded 26 points and 8 assists versus Queens) dictating the game’s tempo and its frontcourt prevailing against Miami’s. Over the past five contests, Trey Kaufman-Renn (with 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists) has averaged 17.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. This inside-outside offensive threat served as the impetus for their journey to the Big Ten tournament championship game. Adding Fletcher Loyer’s precise shooting, the Boilermakers possess the capability to defeat any opponent — they are a formidable unit to contain, given their interior stature and Smith’s prowess in controlling any game’s flow. In their most recent loss this season, Wisconsin sank 18 3-pointers. Miami, however, does not present a comparable danger in this specific matchup. — Myron Medcalf
Miami’s Path to the Sweet 16: Jai Lucas has already masterminded one of the most significant transformations in Division I basketball this season. A triumph over Purdue and an appearance in the Sweet 16 would mark another accomplishment in a remarkable debut season at the helm, yet it will not come without difficulty. Malik Reneau must be the standout performer on the court to provide Miami — a team without victories against any national championship contenders — a chance to win. The Hurricanes will also need to exert pressure on Smith and maintain disciplined play within the paint. Even if they execute precisely that, they will still require Reneau, Tre Donaldson, and Shelton Henderson to equal — or surpass — the contributions of Smith, Kaufman-Renn, and Loyer. This is the type of encounter where Miami’s top players will need to outshine Purdue’s. — Medcalf
2:45 p.m., CBS
Iowa State’s Path to the Sweet 16: Even with Joshua Jefferson’s likely absence, Iowa State possesses sufficient talent to overcome Kentucky. The Cyclones boast individual perimeter defenders capable of slowing down the trio of Otega Oweh, Collin Chandler, and Denzel Aberdeen — particularly Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure — and could achieve success by compelling turnovers. Kentucky also lacks an effective counter for Milan Momcilovic, who arguably stands as the nation’s premier shooter and measures 6-foot-8. The Wildcats will probably have to assign 6-4 Oweh or 6-5 Chandler to guard him, granting Momcilovic a likely advantage there. Without Jefferson, TJ Otzelberger might opt for a smaller lineup featuring Momcilovic at the 4 spot, which could create a more challenging individual defensive assignment but would also spread out Kentucky’s defense and reduce some of its shot-blockers in the interior. — Jeff Borzello
Kentucky’s Path to the Sweet 16: The starting point is safeguarding the ball. Iowa State thrives by forcing turnovers and executing fast breaks for facile scores. The Cyclones rank fourth nationwide in defensive turnover percentage and in points gained from turnovers per game. Kentucky, conversely, was 12th in the SEC in turnover percentage, though the Wildcats have tightened their play recently, committing only 46 turnovers in their last five games. Nonetheless, they have faced difficulties against teams employing aggressive ball pressure, including Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, which are among the most turnover-forcing defenses in the SEC. They will also need to convert perimeter shots — their 3-point shooting percentage is better than 37% in wins compared to just 29% in losses. Iowa State can defend the 3-point line, but Kentucky’s triumvirate of Oweh, Chandler, and Aberdeen must get their offense flowing. — Jeff Borzello
5:15 p.m., CBS
Kansas’ Path to the Sweet 16: Flory Bidunga must be the pivotal player for Kansas against St. John’s. He will face a formidable challenge against Zuby Ejiofor, recognized as one of the country’s top two-way big men, yet Bidunga has held his own in confrontations with Motiejus Krivas and JT Toppin. Bidunga has also struggled significantly in other high-stakes games, scoring five and four points in two matchups against Houston, two points against Arizona, and eight points against North Carolina, with his win/loss statistics being quite revealing. In Kansas’ victories, Bidunga averages 15.1 points and shoots over 70% from the field. In losses, he averages 9.9 points and shoots 50.6% from the field. Defensively, the Jayhawks must prevent St. John’s from transitioning and compel the Red Storm to attempt perimeter shots. They ranked near the bottom of the Big East in 3-point attempt rate and the proportion of points derived from 3s. Their 10 3-pointers against Northern Iowa marked the first time they achieved double-digit 3s in a single game since January 10. — Jeff Borzello
St. John’s Path to the Sweet 16: St. John’s most significant advantage over Kansas will be on the offensive boards. The Red Storm are among the nation’s most proficient offensive rebounding teams, ranking 17th nationally in second-chance points per game. Kansas, meanwhile, was one of the Big 12’s weakest defensive rebounding teams, allowing opponents to recover nearly 32% of their missed shots. Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell should secure additional possessions for the Red Storm. With the exception of the overwhelming defeat at UConn in late February, St. John’s defense has been operating at an exceptionally high standard for several weeks. The Red Storm have permitted their last five opponents to convert an average of just 3.4 3-pointers per contest. — Jeff Borzello
6:10 p.m., TNT
Virginia’s Path to the Sweet 16: This is no longer Tony Bennett’s typical squad. The Cavaliers routinely sink 3-pointers and also score effectively with a robust interior game. Furthermore, they boast a top-25 defense. They will require all of these capabilities against Tennessee, which leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate. They cannot permit the Vols to dominate with second-chance points, and the Cavaliers are well-equipped to prevent this, thanks to a top-five defense within the arc. They will also need to restrict the touches of projected NBA draft lottery pick Nate Ament. Tennessee has a 2-3 record in its last five games when he attempts nine or fewer shots inside the arc. They must also pressure Ja’Kobi Gillespie (who has 11 turnovers in the past four losses). The Cavaliers’ barrage of 3-pointers must persist after Virginia converted 13 against Wright State. The Cavaliers likely cannot secure a win without a stellar performance from Thijs De Ridder, but they will falter if their 3-point shooting goes cold. — Myron Medcalf
Tennessee’s Path to the Sweet 16: Rick Barnes’ team concluded Miami (Ohio)’s Cinderella story on Friday. The Volunteers outscored Travis Steele’s team 40-16 in the paint to advance — achieving this despite projected NBA draft lottery pick Ament going 0-for-3 in the game. The Vols will need Ament to perform more like the player who tallied 27 points in an SEC tournament victory over Auburn to reach the Sweet 16. Ja’Kobi Gillespie continues to elevate this group. If he reaches his preferred scoring positions, Ament fulfills his potential, and the Vols control the offensive glass, they will possess the offensive arsenal to win. However, nearly 50% of Virginia’s field goal attempts are 3-pointers, and the Cavaliers are a top-10 offensive rebounding team. They are also capable of playing Tennessee’s style of game. The Vols will have to execute it with superior skill. — Myron Medcalf
7:10 p.m., TBS
Florida’s Path to the Sweet 16: Florida’s game preparation will concentrate on inhibiting Bennett
Stirtz and limiting his possession of the ball. Stirtz operates as a primary ball-handler, and Ben McCollum’s tactical framework centers on him influencing nearly every offensive sequence. Boogie Fland has significantly enhanced his defensive capabilities this season and will probably be entrusted with guarding Stirtz. Florida’s broader strategy will involve asserting its dominance. The Gators possess greater stature and athleticism than Iowa, and their defense is exceptional. Should they manage to accelerate the game’s tempo and unsettle Iowa, it appears unlikely the Hawkeyes could maintain pace. Iowa has not participated in a game with more than 70 possessions this season; Florida averages 70.7 possessions per contest, according to KenPom. — Borzello
How Iowa can advance to the Sweet 16: Theoretically, Iowa faces a formidable challenge in the interior against Florida. The Gators boast one of the nation’s most formidable frontcourts, ranking second nationwide in points scored in the paint per game and third in second-chance points per game. They also lead the country in offensive rebounds per game. Iowa is not known for shot-blocking and permits opponents to convert 56.5% of their attempts inside the arc in Big Ten play, yet the Hawkeyes competed against a frontcourt of comparable stature and skill when they encountered Michigan earlier this month. And despite their loss, they performed respectably in the paint, outscoring the Wolverines inside and accumulating more second-chance points. Can the Hawkeyes replicate this achievement against Florida? Iowa will also need to dictate the game’s tempo, which is among the slowest nationally, compelling the Gators to engage in half-court play more frequently than they prefer. — Borzello
7:50 p.m., truTV
How Arizona can advance to the Sweet 16: Arizona has no need to alter its strategic approach to reach its third consecutive Sweet 16. Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley contributed merely seven points against LIU on Friday, yet the Wildcats still amassed 92 points. If they continue to leverage their depth, they will prove formidable; five Arizona players each tallied at least eight points in their victory over Long Island. Furthermore, the Wildcats, who previously drew criticism for converting only 33% of their 3-point tries in Big 12 action, have improved to 39% from beyond the arc during their current 10-game winning streak. They are transformed. To neutralize Utah State’s offense, Arizona must exhibit strong defense against numerous ball screens designed to position MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev for scoring opportunities. The Aggies will likely target 7-foot-2 Arizona center Motiejus Krivas more than any other player on these ball screens, aiming to leverage their quickness to set up crucial plays for their premier guards. Utah State will require an extraordinary performance to defeat Arizona. — Medcalf
How Utah State can advance to the Sweet 16: Utah State will require another decisive effort from Collins and Falslev — recognized as one of America’s premier guard duos, who combined for 42 points against Villanova — to progress past Arizona, a team with only two defeats. In the latter half of Friday’s contest, the pair found their scoring rhythm partly due to off-ball screens and backdoor cuts toward the hoop. They must identify their optimal scoring positions to stand a chance against Arizona, too. Defensively, the Aggies could adopt two successful strategies against Arizona: Kansas steadfastly resisted Arizona’s powerful frontcourt, and Texas Tech needed a combination of 31 points from JT Toppin and perimeter pressure that restricted the Wildcats to a 4-for-16 shooting percentage from 3-point range. However, the Wildcats are versatile, so Utah State will need 6-foot-10 Zach Keller and 6-foot-9 Adlan Elamin to safeguard the paint. The Aggies’ guards will also be crucial in limiting an Arizona team that has been proficient from long range in recent weeks. — Medcalf
8:45 p.m., TNT
How UConn can advance to the Sweet 16: UConn can prevail in most individual contests within this game, even if Silas Demary Jr. is sidelined. Solo Ball is adept at generating shots off the dribble, Alex Karaban poses a perimeter threat as a 38.6% 3-point shooter, Tarris Reed Jr. recently concluded with 31 points and 27 rebounds in the victory over Furman, and Braylon Mullins is regarded as a potential first-round NBA draftee. The Huskies have contended with efficiency struggles and ball-handling errors lately, but if they can establish a more fluid offensive flow, they are capable of defeating any team in the nation. If Tyler Bilodeau makes his return, however, their big men — including Reed — will face difficulties defending in open court. Nonetheless, a Huskies squad with triumphs over Florida, BYU, and St. John’s has surmounted more individual talent than UCLA possesses on its roster. UConn can maintain a straightforward approach and secure the win. — Medcalf
How UCLA can advance to the Sweet 16: It would be advantageous if Bilodeau were to return. The 6-foot-9 standout is UCLA’s most proficient 3-point shooter — he creates space on the court for the Bruins in a distinctive manner that optimizes their offense. Against UConn, his presence would be a game-changer due to his physical attributes and skill. Without him, the Bruins must exert greater effort to find uncontested shots against a UConn unit boasting a top-15 defense. Furthermore, Donovan Dent, who shot 4-for-17 from the field against UCF, cannot afford to be an idle participant in this contest. He was among the most sought-after transfers in the portal during the offseason. He must perform at his peak potential to assist UCLA in overcoming a team that has secured two of the last three national championships.
On defense, Xavier Booker will bear the responsibility of containing Reed, who just finished with 31 points and 27 rebounds in a win over Furman. If the 6-foot-11 Booker cannot impede Reed’s scoring, UCLA will have no realistic chance. The Bruins should also aim to capitalize on UConn’s issues with ball control — the Huskies have committed 79 turnovers in their last six outings — particularly if Demary remains out. — Medcalf
9:45 p.m., TBS
How Alabama can advance to the Sweet 16: Akin to Tech’s pivotal factors, Alabama must dominate the perimeter contest. The Crimson Tide launch an extraordinary number of shots from beyond the arc but are not quite as precise as the Red Raiders — and the Tide have suffered defeat in four of the six games where they converted fewer than 10 3-pointers. Moreover, Alabama’s 3-point defense is considerably inferior to Texas Tech’s. Without Aden Holloway, Alabama has fewer players capable of generating their own shot off the dribble, making the Crimson Tide more dependent on Labaron Philon Jr. to deliver another standout performance. As one of the sport’s elite playmakers and scorers, Philon is likely prepared for the challenge. However, he will confront a fellow All-American and first-round draft prospect in Christian Anderson. Who will emerge victorious in that individual battle? That is the crucial question. — Borzello
How Texas Tech can advance to the Sweet 16: Texas Tech is one of the few squads in America capable of matching Alabama’s perimeter prowess. Although the Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-point attempt rate and made 3-pointers per game, the Red Raiders are not far behind — they rank third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and fifth in made 3-pointers per game. They have intensified this focus even more since JT Toppin sustained a season-ending right knee injury, recording a 3-point attempt rate exceeding 51% in four of their last five games. On the defensive end, can Tech prevent Philon from penetrating the lane at will? He possesses a slight size advantage over Anderson, but Donovan Atwell has demonstrated promise as a solo defender and could be assigned to guard him. — Borzello