Last season, enthusiasts of fantasy baseball admired Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong for his impressive achievement of 31 home runs and 35 stolen bases. This feat placed him among only seven athletes to reach “30/30” distinction. However, every other player in that elite group also managed to draw a minimum of 30 walks, frequently even more than double that figure. Crow-Armstrong, an NL Gold Glove recipient, did not demonstrate this aptitude. His audacious approach and notable deficiency in plate discipline, though not the sole determinants of his breakthrough year, could shape his forthcoming career.
His 4.5% walk rate, ranking as the fifth lowest among 145 players vying for the batting title, undoubtedly influenced how pitchers adapted their strategies, leading to his more frequent outs. During the initial half of the season, Crow-Armstrong batted .265/.302/.544, contributing an exceptional 25 homers and 27 stolen bases from 31 tries. He readily secured a spot on the All-Star Game roster and was even perceived as a potential MVP. However, following the mid-season interval, his performance dipped to .216/.262/.372, with merely six home runs and eight steals in 12 attempts. In that timeframe, a mere 12 athletes registered a poorer OPS. None of those individuals were in contention for MVP.
While Crow-Armstrong continues to be favored in roto/categories leagues, his appeal diminishes considerably in points formats (which constitute ESPN’s default), where drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts are paramount. Certainly, he maintains a secure position within the top 100, yet at a notably reduced valuation. Appreciable danger exists in allocating an early draft selection or substantial auction capital towards him in either style of league, rendering him a prime contender to headline ESPN’s most recent “Avoid Drafting” compilation. This does not imply one should formally and enthusiastically disregard Crow-Armstrong this season; nevertheless, dedicating a top-50 draft choice to him and presuming his status as a cornerstone fixture (akin to his performance in the first half of 2025) represents a bold move.
Fundamentally, the “Avoid Drafting” compilation serves as an assessment where we scrutinize anticipated preseason imaginary sports worth against the probable reality of forthcoming data substantiating that worth. To achieve these aims, we employ average draft position (ADP) as a benchmark for evaluating an athlete’s worth, across ESPN and other platforms like NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship). Even within roto/categories leagues, the primary subject of this commentary, Crow-Armstrong presents a performance hazard as he persistently swings vigorously at almost every pitch, offering scant confidence that he will modify his technique. It’s conceivable he might attain “30/30” once more, yet a statistical drawback also exists.
Several other fantasy-pertinent batters exhibit remarkably low walk rates, such as Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, Houston Astros backstop Yainer Diaz, and Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez. These individuals also carry certain hazards, although they typically shouldn’t command a top-100 selection in ESPN leagues, regardless of whether they are roto or points-centric. Crow-Armstrong, however, demands a top-50 choice. Exercise caution in this regard. Frequently, difficulties experienced in the latter half of a season serve as a more indicative measure of prospective output, as offensive players endeavor to adapt. Crow-Armstrong, merely 24 years old, possesses a congenial demeanor, is an exceptional fielder, and an exhilarating baserunner endowed with strength. Nonetheless, speculative baseball inherently involves peril. Remain vigilant.
Additional athletes to bypass at their present ADP
Backstop: Within ESPN leagues, we deploy just one active catcher, which diverges from the usual practice. (For instance, NFBC and numerous other specialist leagues mandate commencing with two catchers). Regardless, I rarely allocate resources to any catcher in the initial rounds. Consider this: we aren’t spotlighting Seattle Mariners power hitter Cal Raleigh on this particular compilation, but is there anyone who genuinely thinks he will crush another 60 long balls? Catchers sustain injuries more frequently than most field players and commonly experience fatigue. I concede that I have been downplaying Raleigh as a top-20 prospect, but he ought not to be highlighted on this specific roster.
Opting for Diaz and Perez during the intermediate rounds represents prudent outlays, notwithstanding their modest walk rates. … Nevertheless, Baltimore Orioles standout Adley Rutschman has failed to maintain star-level performance since 2023. Although his plate discipline maintains its integrity, his indicators for balls in play persistently decline. Diminish Rutschman’s standing in ESPN formats. … A dozen backstops surpassed Philadelphia Phillies regular J.T. Realmuto in both roto and points scoring systems. Prospects for betterment are slim at 35 years old, hence, disregard him in single-catcher setups.
First base: The leading ten players at this spot appear comparatively secure. It’s notable that Los Angeles Dodgers luminary Freddie Freeman is no longer considered a top-50 choice in ADP. This discernment is judicious. Freeman appeared on this compilation during the previous season, a decision that proved accurate. Yet, he could be undervalued if his ranking drops excessively. … I wouldn’t unequivocally bypass Josh Naylor of the Mariners within the top 100, but he is improbable to swipe another 30 bags, given his status as one of the sport’s less agile runners. Naylor preserves the majority of his worth, but his hitting has been erratic. I have depreciated Naylor at his present ambitious ADP.
A prevailing belief existed that the fresh Boston Red Sox player Willson Contreras would achieve superior results last season, unburdened by the demands of catching. This outcome did not materialize, despite his increased playing time. His ADP appears reasonable and quite modest, so we should maintain that assessment. … The recent San Francisco Giants leadoff batter Luis Arraez doesn’t appeal to all. My preference for fantasy batters is that they exhibit power, as opposed to concentrating solely on making contact and vying for batting crowns. Arraez seldom whiffs. He holds considerably greater utility in points-based systems than in roto. I abstain from selecting him across all formats.
Second base: Astros icon Jose Altuve will reach 36 years of age this June. His defensive shortcomings detrimentally impact the squad, potentially influencing his presence on the field. Furthermore, his OPS has declined over each of the last three campaigns. Altuve successfully pilfered only 10 bases from 16 attempts. While his hitting prowess and resilience persist, this might not hold true indefinitely, rendering him an uncertain top-100 selection. … Red Sox second baseman/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela, another player with a dismal 4.8% walk rate (among the bottom 10), does not provide the same blend of power and speed as Crow-Armstrong, yet he is typically chosen approximately 100 positions later. Additionally, Rafaela’s .587 OPS in the latter half of the season was the second lowest in Major League Baseball. Never anticipate a lofty batting average from him. … Braves regular Ozzie Albies is no longer considered a top-100 prospect, yet he has predominantly underperformed in three of four seasons. More advantageous options are available in the middle stages of the draft.
Shortstop: It’s permissible to desire Dodgers luminary Mookie Betts beyond the fifth round, yet his fantasy worth is notably diminished compared to merely two campaigns prior. Like Freeman, the market adjusted somewhat in this area, thus, refrain from dwelling on previous outcomes. … A significant decline in output is widely anticipated for Arizona Diamondbacks newcomer Geraldo Perdomo. I concur that substantial power hitting is improbable for him. His showing in 2025 was largely quantity-dependent, but he ought to persist as a top-100 selection. … Texas Rangers standout Corey Seager is a recurrent fixture on this roster, with valid justification. He participated in merely 125 contests during just one of the last five seasons. He’s a dependable contributor when active, but his fragile constitution presents an issue. … Regarding recurring ailments, commendations to Red Sox ace Trevor Story for competing in 157 matches last year. Is a recurrence widely expected? This factor alone renders him a perilous top-50 pick.
Third base: Cincinnati Reds cleanup hitter Eugenio Suarez totaled 52 round-trippers across the 2023-24 campaigns for the Mariners and Diamondbacks. Subsequently, he launched 49 homers last season. Suarez maintains a modest batting average and frequently strikes out. Your satisfaction will diminish when his home run tally reverts to the 30-mark — and that will not align with his present ADP. … Braves starter Austin Riley participated in an average of 106 contests across the last two years. It’s prudent to presume he’s no longer a resilient performer, until he demonstrates otherwise. … I admired Jordan Westburg until news surfaced of his UCL tear in his throwing elbow. When a player is already sidelined in March, refrain from expecting an imminent stellar season. Anticipate numerous missed appearances. … Minnesota Twins slugger Royce Lewis seemed a worthwhile gamble two years ago. He showcased significant power when sufficiently sound to play. We can no longer depend on either his stamina or output now.
Outfield: This is a pivotal season for Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz. Prior to him, no one had ever achieved a batting average under .230 coupled with 20 homers and 30 stolen bases — Cruz, however, batted merely .200. He has two successive campaigns with a 30% strikeout rate and managed a mere .102 against left-handed pitchers. Should this persist, Cruz will be utilized in a platoon. Disregard him as a top-100 selection, which is his current trajectory. … Michael Harris II drew 16 walks across 160 contests, equivalent to under one per week. He now resides in Javier Baez’s statistical realm (and do not contemplate drafting Baez). Harris performed poorly in four of six months during the previous season. Opposing hurlers typically comprehend the reason. … New York Mets outfielder Luis Robert Jr. is an alluring prospect who, during his last two years with the Chicago White Sox, batted a mere .224 while being absent for a third of the matchups. The Mets possess the means to gamble on him, but I personally cannot endorse it.
Swift Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson could pilfer a minimum of 75 bags, provided sufficient playing time. Still, though he batted .295 in his debut season, he provides neither power nor defensive aptitude. He should be eschewed in points league formats, and the Rays might concur, endangering his standing in roto leagues. … Washington Nationals newcomer Dylan Crews — the second overall selection in the 2023 amateur draft — will see action and exhibit speed, yet other aspects might be detrimental. Crews being drafted in the mid-rounds is likely acceptable, but he needs to demonstrate his ability to hit major league pitching. … New York Yankees youth Jasson Dominguez may not even secure a roster spot. Steer clear. … It is true that Dodgers regulars Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages displayed two of the lowest walk rates among eligible players, but this didn’t hinder them within that formidable lineup. I am comfortable with their assertive approach. … Los Angeles Angels legend Mike Trout being chosen in the middle rounds is acceptable. This ought to have occurred years prior.
Starting pitcher: Allocate resources early to Dodgers ace RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Disregard the remaining Dodgers. Hey, merely one Dodger surpassed 113 innings pitched last season. They possess considerable depth and eschew injury risks, as only October’s outcomes hold significance. LHP Blake Snell could be formidable again in his 60 frames, but it amounts to merely 60 frames. Neither Snell nor Tyler Glasnow present sensible top-100 choices. … Reds RHP Hunter Greene cannot fan 200 batters with a compromised elbow. This does not appear to be the opportune year for investment. … The enthusiasm surrounding Mets rookie Nolan McLean is soaring. He ought not to falter, yet his top-100 Average Draft Position seems somewhat exaggerated.
Reds RHP Chase Burns radiates 200-strikeout potential, but he appears improbable to accumulate sufficient innings to reach that mark in 2026. His elevated ADP suggests otherwise. … The buzz is more reasonable for young Toronto Blue Jays RHP Trey Yesavage, a postseason standout, yet still overly optimistic for my taste. Also, steer clear of fellow Jay RHP Shane Bieber. When players are ailing in March (excluding those rehabilitating like Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole), interpret the situation accordingly. … Anyone beyond the top 200, well, the associated risk is so minimal that avoiding them might prove futile.
Relief pitcher: Astros LHP Josh Hader almost headlined this whole piece. Shoulder issues sidelined him for the close of 2025, and biceps inflammation now places him considerably behind schedule. Evidently, something is awry. Greater elucidation is required, particularly given a top-100 Average Draft Position. … It’s worth noting, generally, I find it challenging to allocate a top-100 selection to any relief pitcher, irrespective of format, even in shallower ESPN leagues. Far too many premier hitters and prospective aces are available at that early stage.
Mets RHP Devin Williams endured several challenging periods last year, but his 2.68 FIP reveals more than his aesthetically displeasing 4.79 ERA. Nevertheless, he troubles me as a premium fantasy closer. I shall forgo him at that Average Draft Position. … Likewise, perhaps, I cannot presume former Mets and current Orioles RHP Ryan Helsley will simply revert to his pre-2025 eminence. … The Milwaukee Brewers are certainly giving the impression that RHP Trevor Megill could split save opportunities with Abner Uribe. That’s sufficient for me to disregard the one currently projected as a near top-10 closer. … Can we merely infer that Blue Jays RHP Jeff Hoffman will not surrender 15 home runs once more? Louis Varland did not yield 15 home runs.