UCL’s Unwanted Trophy: Madrid, PSG, or Serie A – Who’s Claiming the Wooden Spoon?

The elimination playoff stage of the UEFA Champions League wrapped up this week, and prior to Friday’s draw determining the final 16 teams, we have a great deal to discuss.

A total of seventeen goals and three dismissals across four matches concluded an utterly tumultuous Wednesday evening, with Galatasaray narrowly defeating Juventus during extra time, Borussia Dortmund inexplicably squandering a two-goal advantage against Atalanta, and Benfica causing a fright at the Bernabéu prior to ultimately yielding to Real Madrid.

On the preceding evening, Bodø/Glimt’s captivating journey persisted, securing a decisive 5-2 overall victory against Internazionale; meanwhile, Atlético Madrid and Newcastle United effortlessly overcame Club Brugge and FK Qarabag, in that order.

ESPN FC journalists Mark Ogden, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens, and Gab Marcotti analyze the events as they unfolded, while we anticipate the upcoming Round of 16.

– UCL Live Coverage: Gala’s triumph in extra time against Juve concludes tumultuous day
– Kirkland: Viní Jr. delivers celebrity influence, yet concerns proliferate for Real Madrid
– O’Halloran: The mystery underpinning Bodø/Glimt’s continental achievements

Q1. Real Madrid overcame Jose Mourinho’s Benfica by a 3-1 aggregate score, though their performance was far from persuasive. Does prevailing despite performing poorly indicate a championship-caliber squad? Or will Los Blancos unravel in the Champions League before long?

Marcotti: I sense a degree of reiteration on my part. Real Madrid possesses the capability to triumph in the Champions League (and indeed LaLiga) due to their possession of an impenetrable goalkeeper, Thibaut Courtois, and an exceptional striker, Kylian Mbappé. Configuring your team primarily for defense (with Courtois providing a safety net) while anticipating a moment of brilliance from one of the two forwards could very well prove effective, given their caliber. However, achieving this will not manifest as a persuasive display. It’s challenging to envision any coach enabling this inadequately assembled squad to appear compelling (Xabi Alonso potentially had a chance, but we’re aware of that outcome), let alone Alvaro Arbeloa. Such is the contemporary reality of football: premier teams possess such abundant skill that they don’t genuinely require a “convincing appearance” to secure victories.

Laurens: I diverge from Gab’s perspective, and I wish to be mistaken, given my desire for Mbappé to claim the Champions League title, yet I genuinely doubt this current iteration of Real Madrid can secure the trophy this season, considering their manager and roster. They have seldom demonstrated true dominance across all facets of a match. A crucial element is consistently absent; to clinch the Champions League, even in a mediocre campaign such as this, complete performance is indispensable. Despite possessing the globe’s finest goalkeeper in Courtois, the premier striker in Mbappé, and an elite winger in Vinícius Júnior, the collective framework remains compromised.

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Burley: Real Madrid appear unlikely to secure the Champions League title

Craig Burley evaluates Real Madrid’s aspirations in the Champions League following their victory in the second leg playoff against Benfica.

Tighe: I have observed Real Madrid performing quite subpar on multiple occasions this season, yet such performances have frequently not prevented them from prevailing. As Gab observes, this often occurs when premier players occupy crucial roles. Nevertheless, I have never been convinced that Madrid’s individual prowess and inherent connection with this competition can eclipse the reality that numerous other teams appear significantly superior, consequently rendering Los Blancos a remote contender for overall victory.

Their most recent showing — a 2-1 home triumph against Benfica — altered nothing. Notwithstanding the victory, Madrid’s play was dreadful. Languid passing, incessant giveaways… they just about saw it through. Benfica posed a constant threat, registering a goal and striking the crossbar. Pit Arbeloa’s squad against a truly exceptional opponent — one that concluded among the top four in the league stage — and observe the outcome.

Ogden: I’m conflicted regarding this matter, as I believe Madrid’s midfield will prove insufficient against a genuinely elite side, yet I don’t perceive any truly premier team within this season’s competition. All other major contenders exhibit weaknesses that Real could exploit, owing to their possessing deadly attackers in Mbappé, Vinícius, and Jude Bellingham, who are capable — health allowing — of consistently emerging to net crucial goals. And Gab’s assessment of Courtois is accurate. He stands as the world’s finest goalkeeper; therefore, with the premier shot-stopper and the top forward — Mbappé — victory is certainly attainable. Ultimately, success will depend on Real Madrid’s fluctuating form, though less formidable squads than this one have previously lifted the Champions League trophy.

Q2. AS Monaco challenged Paris Saint-Germain strenuously in their encounter, with Les Parisiens ultimately triumphing 5-4 on aggregate. Do the reigning titleholders possess sufficient reserves to achieve consecutive victories?

Laurens: Regrettably, I believe not, and I have accepted this reality. I would have adored for my Parisians to achieve successive triumphs, yet there’s a rationale why merely two clubs have accomplished this feat since the late 1980s: AC Milan and Real Madrid. It is exceedingly arduous to achieve. This PSG roster attained its sublime zenith last season, marked by four exceptional months during which they vanquished half of the Premier League and utterly dismantled Inter Milan in the final. Every factor coalesced perfectly then, and they will not replicate this experience, neither this season nor likely ever again. Currently, they remain in the competition and are poised to encounter Chelsea or Barcelona in the round of 16. Their journey might conclude at that point, particularly if they face the Catalans. However, it might extend somewhat further with a healthy Ousmane Dembélé, a fit Fabián Ruiz, and Vitinha displaying improved performance (and might we also have Gianluigi Donnarumma reinstated, if you please?). But another complete run? Not this season.

Marcotti: PSG has suffered defeat in six matches across all competitions this season. In the previous year, notwithstanding their sluggish beginning, they had incurred only three losses. Nevertheless, four of those six defeats occurred against French clubs, and none of those remain in the tournament. (The remaining two were against Bayern Munich

and Sporting CP, when they were quite unfortunate). So I’m not dismissing their chances. I believe Juls is being excessively harsh on his team. They’re a youthful squad, brimming with vigor and, compared to last season, they have an additional year of seasoning. Conversely, they weakened their goalkeeping position (at times, I consider Donnarumma alone superior to Matvey Safonov AND Lucas Chevalier combined between the posts). Yeah, achieving repeated success is challenging, but no justification to disregard them.

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Moreno: PSG could get vulnerable in Champions League elimination rounds

Alejandro Moreno responds to PSG advancing to the Champions League elimination rounds after a 5-4 overall victory over Monaco.

Ogden: I was in Paris for the second-leg against Monaco and I was impressed by how subdued PSG were. The atmosphere in the Parc des Princes was also uncharacteristically hushed. Maybe everybody is just exhausted by the last 12 months? The psychological burden of having to defend a title is sufficiently challenging, but PSG also played on until mid-July in the Club World Cup, so it’s no surprise they appear utterly fatigued. I do not envision them defeating Barcelona in the next round and I estimate it’s an even chance against Chelsea. A year ago, PSG resembled a tempest tearing through the tournament, but all that dynamism has vanished and they stand no chance of securing victory once more this season.

Tighe: PSG have declined significantly, it’s so dismaying. There are apparent causes for it — accumulated injuries and the absence of a key custodian, as the guys have mentioned — but it possibly also demonstrates how difficult it is to sustain an exceptional standard for any longer than half a year. With that in mind, I applaud Pep Guardiola, who maintained his Barcelona and Manchester City teams performing at an astonishing pace for much, much longer. It’s difficult to imagine Les Parisiens re-entering contention from this point.

Q3. Bodø/Glimt are the sensation of the 2025-26 Champions League; progressing beyond any prior Norwegian side, securing notable victories over Atlético, Man City and Inter (twice) along the way. How far can this improbable journey go? And does their performance offer encouragement to teams beyond Europe’s premier five divisions when it pertains to this tournament?

Ogden: I think this all hinges on Friday’s fixture allocation and if Bodø manage to bypass Manchester City and instead encounter Sporting CP. I know Bodø resoundingly defeated City — yes, it was a decisive defeat — when they beat them 3-1 in Norway last month, but I just cannot foresee a repeat occurrence against Guardiola’s team. Bodø could win again at home, but City will have drawn conclusions from their trip to the Arctic Circle and, with the return match at the Etihad, you would anticipate the Premier League squad to triumph handily.

Sporting, though, would be a distinct situation. Bodø have beaten City and won away against Atlético Madrid and Inter, so the team from Portugal will not intimidate Kjetil Knutsen and his players. And yes, every team outside the big leagues can draw encouragement from Bodø. If you’re well-structured, adept at recruitment, and guided by an astute manager you can defeat the leading sides.

Laurens: I concur with Oggy. Give Bodø/Glimt an encounter with Sporting, and they’ll be in the quarterfinals. However, if they face Guardiola’s side, they will have their weekdays liberated once more; Bodø are unable to overcome Manchester City across a two-legged tie.

The most captivating aspect in this whole Arctic Circle saga is that they failed to secure a single victory in their initial six group stage matches. Then they beat City and Atlético and astonishingly advanced into the round of 24. There is a wealth of insights to glean from the Norwegians’ success regarding their structure, ethos, capital injection, and vigor.

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Klinsmann: Inter elimination to Bodø/Glimt ‘profoundly mortifying’

Jurgen Klinsmann labels Inter’s Champions League elimination at the hands of Bodø/Glimt as a “disaster” for the leading Serie A team.

Marcotti: The thing about Bodø is that they’re venturesome yet potentially lucrative. They have to be, because they’re competing with significantly better-funded adversaries. They exhibit immense vigor, they operate with precision, and they’re intrepid. That surprises more prominent clubs, which is a factor contributing to their strong performance. And psychologically, they are exceptionally resilient as well: observe their ability to maintain resolve despite not securing a win until the final group stage rounds. Then there’s the artificial turf, the Arctic region, and other contributing factors, which helps too.

I think they can astonish any opponent, but similarly, numerous circumstances must align in their favor (like they did in the opening match against Inter). Let’s just call them the most unforeseeable squad remaining in the competition.

Tighe: The most commendable aspect about this Bodø/Glimt squad is that many of their main players are essentially outcasts — they transferred to Europe’s premier divisions, but failed to make the grade and found themselves in the Arctic region, rebuilding their professional lives. Forward Jens Petter Hauge was unsuccessful at AC Milan and Eintracht Frankfurt; Patrick Berg undertook a significant transfer to Lens, only to be returned within twelve months; Kasper Høgh — the guy who continually finds the net and provides assists — is on his sixth Nordic team by the age of twenty-five.

These players not only discover themselves in an ideal setting, but they all sense a need to demonstrate their capabilities to the global stage. That’s a perilous amalgamation that has no bounds.

Q4. Juve were eliminated by Galatasaray, Inter were disassembled by Bodø, and Atalanta narrowly overcame a Dortmund team evidently prone to self-sabotage. Oh and Napoli failed to even reach the elimination stages! With the national team facing the prospect of a playoff to even secure qualification for the (enlarged) World Cup, ought we to be concerned regarding the condition of Italian football?

Laurens: Even Gab, at times, can err! Before the start of Tuesday’s games, he told us: “Rest assured, Inter and Atalanta will be in good stead…” Regrettably, for a Nerazzurri supporter, the situation is not favorable. Atalanta, seventh in Serie A, on their second manager of the season and who lost their best player, Ademola Lookman, in the January transfer window, are rescuing Italian football from complete disgrace. Nor is this unexpected.

We watch Serie A every weekend: it’s the division with the highest number of goalless stalemates (by a considerable margin) this season among the five major leagues, the division with the lowest intensity (apart from Como and, to a lesser extent, Atalanta) among the five major leagues, the league where Luka Modric, at forty years of age, ranks among the top performers this season. And I could continue further…

In 2023, Serie A boasted a contender in each of the three European tournaments. The Italians suffered defeat in all of them and, three years subsequent, even those ‘achievements’ seem like a remote recollection.

Tighe: There’s undeniable that specific individuals within Italy’s

Established leading teams currently seem feeble. One only needs to recall a few years prior to envision AC Milan and Inter contending in a Champions League semi-final! Not even a decade ago, Juventus secured Cristiano Ronaldo for €100 million, aiming to conquer this tournament. Yet presently? Numerous renowned Serie A powerhouses seem to be absent from Europe’s elite stage.

Nevertheless, a degree of subtlety is essential here. Elimination competitions are inherently unpredictable, a fact Inter can readily confirm. They achieved 2.29 xG during their 2-1 second-leg defeat against Bodø/Glimt, having struck the goal frame repeatedly in the initial leg. Such is football; errors occasionally occur. Couple that with Napoli’s health problems (and the reality that Antonio Conte, who frequently falters in European contests, coaches them), and it’s prudent to ponder if some of this is merely… situational.

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Leboeuf & Marcotti clash over late penalty decision for Atalanta

Frank Leboeuf and Gab Marcotti discuss the penalty decision that sent Atalanta to the Champions League knockouts.

Ogden: Italian soccer appears to be stuck in a past era. The national squad confronts the likelihood of failing to attend a third consecutive World Cup, and should they even advance, the deficiency in skill within Gennaro Gattuso’s roster indicates they would be fortunate to progress beyond the group phase. Previous Italian icon Alessandro Del Piero recently discussed the insufficient stadium funding by prominent Italian clubs and a outflow of talent causing top young Italian players to compete for foreign teams. He further highlighted the complacency that leads major clubs to exchange players amongst themselves instead of exploring international markets.

It’s remarkable to consider that since Inter’s Champions League victory in 2010, Italian clubs have only secured two European accolades: AS Roma (UEFA Conference League, 2022) and Atalanta (UEFA Europa League, 2024). Elite athletes no longer compete in Italy, which is ultimately the reason their teams underperform in the Champions League.

Marcotti: Alright, I’ll engage. Juls, is that truly a remote recollection? Serie A has dispatched an equivalent number of clubs to the Champions League final over the past four years as the Premier League. Serie A contends with numerous issues; a significant one is individuals (such as Oggy) contrasting them with a bygone era, specifically between approximately 1985 and 2000, when they regularly signed the planet’s top footballers and controlled the sport. The global landscape has transformed. European soccer is largely controlled by the same 10-12 elite clubs for various reasons, and Italy’s major teams do not stand equally with the super-clubs in Spain, nor Bayern, nor PSG. This is fundamentally the topic of our discussion.

Furthermore, Oggy’s assessment regarding self-satisfaction and dreadful governance is accurate — less so concerning venues (they certainly could benefit from refurbishment, but it won’t be a game-changer) and the national squad (a deficit of ability isn’t why they’re in the play-offs). However, let’s also adopt a more subtle perspective.

Inter might have netted five goals in their initial match against Bodø, and this discussion would not be occurring. Neither would it be happening if Florian Wirtz had not feigned a foul during stoppage time, as they would then be in the Round of 16. Atalanta — forgive me, I understand you anticipated this query assuming their elimination — currently sit seventh in Serie A and ousted Dortmund, who are second in the Bundesliga. They achieved this without their top midfielder and two primary forwards. Perhaps a moment of calm is warranted.

Q5. Now that the playoff round is complete, which match are you hoping gets drawn in Friday’s last 16?

Marcotti: I am genuinely indifferent, but as you’ve requested politely, a match between Newcastle United and Barcelona would be enjoyable and vibrant. It would also present a clear clash of approaches (Anthony Gordon against such an advanced defensive line… what do you think?) Bayern’s Jonathan Tah competing against his former team, Bayer Leverkusen, would also be entertaining.

Laurens: As you’re aware, I favor major spectacles. I’m not particularly concerned with charming underdog narratives or seeing numerous lesser clubs progress to the latter rounds of the tournament, thus I desire significant fixtures in the last 16. I wish for Atletico against Liverpool, Manchester City versus Real Madrid, PSG versus Chelsea, and Bayer Leverkusen versus Bayern Munich.

The remaining matches, particularly Newcastle versus Barcelona, will be superb to observe, similar to Atalanta versus Arsenal, yet my sole request to UEFA is an abundance of major club versus major club encounters in the forthcoming stage!

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Why is Woltemade playing out of position for Newcastle?

Craig Burley and Steve Nicol try to make sense of Newcastle using striker Nick Woltemade in a deeper role.

Ogden: I concur with Juls regarding this point. It appears to have required an eternity to reach the consequential matches in this Champions League season, but we have at last arrived, so let’s witness as many formidable contenders battling it out as feasible.

However, a fixture that fascinates me is PSG against Chelsea/Barcelona, given how challenging it is to assess PSG this season. Will they seek retribution against Chelsea for vanquishing them in the Club World Cup final, or will it be a rekindling of their storied Champions League rivalry with Barça? Regardless, PSG faces two monumental clashes ahead.

Tighe: My singular plea to the draw’s arbiters is to minimize purely domestic matchups. The genuinely enjoyable aspect of the Champions League is observing clubs that do not compete against one another at least biannually engage in combat, thereby upholding their respective nations’ prestige.

Therefore, considering this, I ask that Chelsea steer clear of Newcastle, and Bayern steer clear of Leverkusen. And if I conduct myself admirably, might I be granted PSG versus Barcelona? It will be a regrettable iteration of what last season’s final ought to have been — yet I will accept it nonetheless.