Elon Musk: Overdrive Engaged

Candidly, I had anticipated Elon Musk would privately submit documents for SpaceX’s initial public offering on the 20th of this month, instead of the 1st. Yet, perhaps this signifies he has shifted his focus to different figures, and we should all note June 7th on our calendars as a potential IPO date, just in case.

Considering the April 1st submission, and the customary period for an SEC review before the S-1 document is disclosed, the soonest I foresee a SpaceX IPO is June. (Provided, of course, that personnel are still present at the SEC who wish to perform their duties rather than merely quickly scan the initial page of the filing, declare, “Seems fine!” and then step out for a quick rest.) Naturally, this procedure could be prolonged — for example, WeWork filed for an IPO in April 2019, and its S-1 was published in August, inviting widespread derision.

Elon Musk is set to be occupied! Candidly, after the DOGE nonsense last year, we all merit a break from this character, but we won’t receive one. There are various Tesla disclosures to anticipate, a legal proceeding where Musk will make a spectacle regarding Sam Altman and OpenAI, and then, of course, the S-1. Will these events unfold sequentially? I ardently hope so, or else I may succumb to fatigue.

Tesla, which has opted to move beyond solely being an automotive manufacturer, has established an April target for commencing manufacturing of its Cybercabs. The model that the Austin American-Statesman observed at South by Southwest lacked a steering wheel, pedals, or a rear window. It is a dual-occupant vehicle; what reason would one have to travel with companions? Elon Musk possesses none, and neither should you.

Predictably, issues plague the Cybercab program. Primarily, personnel continue to exit Tesla. Mark Lupkey, who served as the production lead for the Cybercab at Giga Texas, has departed — the third senior Cybercab leader to leave the company, following Victor Nechita, who was the project director, and Thomas Dmytryk, who developed the core infrastructure for ride-hailing. The exodus of skilled workers from Tesla over the past two years has been considerable.

That’s merely the staffing aspect. The robotaxi service itself is not faring well either! While I have been assured by sundry enthusiasts that autonomous driving will be more secure than human-operated vehicles, this robotaxi program appears not to be. Electrek has been monitoring the collisions, and it reveals that as of February, humans are fourfold more secure than Tesla’s autonomous vehicles. Compared to Waymo, which appears potentially more secure than people, this is abysmal.

We also might or might not receive updates regarding Optimus, Tesla’s attempt at the presently popular “physical AI,” previously referred to as robots. We were *expected* to receive news on Optimus in the first quarter of this year, but incredibly, its launch was postponed. I suppose it has progressed beyond “guy in a robot costume,” but I’m skeptical of its readiness for public debut, especially since I am old enough to remember when Musk wanted an “exotic colossal vessel” manufacturing Teslas, which resulted in a costly debacle that severely impacted the schedule for the Model 3. (Many Model 3s were assembled alternatively in a temporary structure in the Tesla Fremont factory parking lot.) I comprehend that Silicon Valley disdains human employees, but the fact is that we are predominantly more economical than our rivals.

Lastly, there is the next-generation Roadster, which was scheduled for demonstration on April 1st — but it also got enigmatically postponed. It could be unveiled within the current month, or possibly not at all. It was initially slated to commence manufacturing in 2020. Certainly, production delays are a common occurrence for Tesla, but six years is egregious.

What *is* the state of Tesla, the publicly traded company Musk already has? Appears to be receding, it seems. Its product range is maturing, the Cybertruck is a disappointment, and Musk’s ultra-conservative political engagements have estranged a broad segment of car buyers. Its deceptively labeled Full Self-Driving may be at risk of being recalled. At least things are improving for Tesla’s energy business, which will be a public service provider in the United Kingdom and seems to be contemplating growth into India.

At any rate, it appears we must now address Musk v. Altman, which is set for a jury proceeding commencing on April 27th. Musk, as you might remember, jointly established research non-profit organization OpenAI with Sam Altman and others in the idyllic period of the 2010s, when he was proclaiming to us we were living in a simulation and making guest appearances on The Big Bang Theory. Altman and Musk were even amicable then, should concurrent Wired accounts prove credible. Both of them had been vociferously warning about the peril of Skynet before they resolved to protect everyone from Skynet by merely constructing it themselves.

The dilemma inherent in an enterprise established by two ambitious titans is that there can be only one sole ruler. By 2017, even Musk had conceded OpenAI required a commercial division to secure the necessary capital the organization needed. Musk departed in a fit of pique because he would not assume the chief executive role, and he discontinued the funding he had pledged to the hybrid non-profit/startup. This abandoned OpenAI in a difficult situation — ultimately culminating in its arrangement with Microsoft.

Musk asserts that OpenAI has abandoned its foundational principles by transitioning to a for-profit model. OpenAI, conversely, believes Musk seeks to stifle rivalry for xAI, the competing venture he established after his departure. Subsequently acquired by SpaceX, xAI is slated for an imminent public offering, so a noteworthy aspect of this legal proceeding’s timing is that any disclosures regarding xAI could influence its impending initial public offering.

The situation is profoundly convoluted and poised to become even more entangled, given Musk’s reputation for aggression and OpenAI’s legal team’s known assertiveness. A recent intriguing document submitted to the court offered insight into potential trial developments: Musk’s legal representatives sought to bar any mention of his recreational substance use and connections to the Trump administration during the proceedings. Even more captivating is the appended segment of a deposition, where Musk faces inquiries about his familiarity with “rhino ket” and his attendance at Burning Man in 2017. Additional disputed matters include the admissibility of Musk’s romantic involvement with Shivon Zilis — identified as the mother of his children — in the trial, as OpenAI contends she served on its board concurrently with their relationship. Zilis, who was initially a plaintiff in the lawsuit, has given birth to four of Musk’s recognized offspring. The presiding judge has yet to render a decision on this specific entanglement.

Meanwhile, SpaceX will persist with its rocket launches. Reducing the expenses associated with space travel seemingly has not stimulated greater public demand for it, given that SpaceX itself appears to be its primary client, and the Starlink satellite internet service is, in fact, sustaining the enterprise. Conceivably, progress might occur regarding the multiple inquiries and legal actions concerning Grok, xAI’s custom-built content generator related to child sexual abuse material. It’s possible Musk will utter peculiar remarks concerning the placement of AI data facilities in orbital environments; I remain uncertain.

What I am certain of is our impending entry into yet another intense period of characteristic Elon Musk behavior, though his public favor has diminished more than ever before. I do not anticipate the SpaceX initial public offering will completely fail, yet more unusual occurrences have transpired! Personally, I await the S-1 filing with anticipation. Concurrently, I shall merely point out that ketamine is not the preferred illicit substance among most extreme productivity enthusiasts. Utilize that information as you deem fit.