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US President Donald Trump dedicated the weekend promoting his “gift” from Iran, asserting it would enable 20 Pakistan-flagged ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s top diplomat, labeled the action “a precursor to peace” as the conflict with Iran still persists, while Trump applauded the development as an indicator that discussions were “progressing very favorably”.
However, maritime analysts on Monday challenged the US president’s assertions, noting that the number of vessels appeared implausibly high, even after Trump intimated they had already “started” navigating “directly through the center of the Strait”.
Only 13 substantial seagoing Pakistan-flagged vessels exist worldwide, based on Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, which categorizes these as ships exceeding 10,000 deadweight tonnage. A supertanker, the type crude traders are eager to observe departing the Gulf, can surpass 200,000 DWT.
Eight of these Pakistani-registered ships are crude carriers and five are freight ships, which transport dry goods such as grain and coal. Yet, none of these vessels are currently stranded in the Middle East Gulf, while merely three are in the Gulf of Oman on the opposite side of the Strait of Hormuz.
“What Trump is asserting, it’s just a sensational claim, designed for attention,” stated one ship broker. “It’s just preposterous,” remarked another analyst who had endeavored throughout the day to comprehend the president’s statements.
Only two Pakistan-flagged ships are confirmed to have navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the preceding fortnight: one tanker on March 15 and one bulk carrier on Saturday. An additional Marshall Islands-flagged tanker, leased by the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, also traversed on Saturday.
Anna Kelly, a media representative for the White House, upheld Trump’s assertions, stating that purported “specialists” had been mistaken regarding the commander-in-chief on numerous prior occasions. She added that these individuals had contended he “could not halt the conflict between Israel and Hamas . . . and that the administration’s tariff policies would precipitate a financial downturn”.
“The president has repeatedly disproven their predictions, and he is confident that the Strait will be accessible promptly,” Kelly further added.
Dar suggested at the weekend that two ships bearing Pakistani registry could commence navigating the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Some ships had started considering changing their registry to Pakistan, as per three diplomats and sector representatives participating in the talks. Nevertheless, even then, the 20-ship mark cited by Trump was improbable to be achieved “in the immediate future,” said one of the individuals.
“People might register under Pakistan’s flag, but what is the benefit after this passage? [It’s] not a durable plan,” commented one shipping executive. “The more straightforward interpretation is that the president is uttering nonsense.”
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ceased since Iran commenced attacking ships and harbor facilities across the Gulf. The price of crude has surged, with the Brent crude benchmark reaching $116 per barrel on Monday, presaging an escalation in price increases in the US as November’s congressional elections draw near.
The ship broker highlighted that a significant portion of the traffic through the strait lately had been “unidirectional, outbound”.
“For the oil market to stabilize, you must ensure vessels enter and exit regularly,” the broker appended.
Tehran has, during the last fortnight, permitted a small number of ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz by taking an unconventional path around Larak Island, near the shore of Iran.
These vessels have comprised crude carriers and freight ships from India, Greece, and Tehran’s indigenous petroleum fleet, as well as the Karachi, a Pakistan-flagged tanker.
Yet, they have primarily been restricted to vessels engaged in commerce with Iran or with strong diplomatic ties to the country. On Monday, two container ships associated with the Chinese state-run conglomerate Cosco departed the passage, signifying the initial instance since the conflict began that a prominent container freight company has traversed the channel.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, whom Trump stated on Sunday was the individual who approved the supplementary vessels, has ridiculed the American head of state for purportedly endeavoring to influence the oil market.
“They’ve inundated with so much fabricated information seeking to depress fuel costs that the market has become desensitized now,” Ghalibaf wrote on X on Friday. “Proceed, but the public is no longer convinced. The actual costs will manifest regardless.”