Though we’ve been documenting this phenomenon since October, and its discussion is now a weekly occurrence, yet it bears reiteration: the Premier League experienced a fundamental shift this campaign, virtually instantaneously.
While it might offer solace to perceive the surge in set plays as a natural part of the tactical fluctuations that characterize a fluid sport with minimal regulations, the current situation appears markedly distinct. Over the course of the two preceding Premier League campaigns, up to this juncture, clubs collectively netted 798 and 737 goals from fluid play and spot kicks. This translates to an approximate mean of 768 goals across 31 fixtures.
This current campaign? The total has plummeted to 615 — representing a 20% reduction. When contrasted solely with the prior season, the decline stands at 23%. This isn’t merely a subtle fluctuation; it’s an overwhelming surge.
In the midst of such a monumental tactical transformation, Arsenal emerge as deserving prospective champions. They discerned the genuine significance of goals from set pieces ahead of virtually all rivals, leveraging their unparalleled superiority in this aspect of the game to secure what will likely be their inaugural championship in more than two decades. The North London club has tallied 21 goals from dead-ball situations while allowing only eight — a positive difference of 13, which is over double that of Manchester United’s second-best set-play advantage of plus-six.
Therefore, with the Premier League championship pursuit almost concluded, I invite you to join me on an expedition through a parallel universe, revisiting earlier times and advancing right up to the present moment. What if, hypothetically, an extraterrestrial entity, deeply enamored with human football, became weary of extensive throw-ins and defensive formations? Imagine this peculiar lifeform, not only a fervent admirer of the aggressive, relentlessly offensive coaching philosophies akin to Hansi Flick’s but also possessing the capacity to navigate and command a non-sequential understanding of temporal progression. Consequently, this entity, with a mere flick of its appendages/digits/unincorporated mass, abruptly expunged all set-piece goals from being.
How would this Premier League campaign have transpired devoid of dead-ball situations? And what future implications might we anticipate? To ascertain this, I meticulously reviewed the current season, expunging all goals originating from free kicks, corner kicks, and throw-ins from the official statistics — subsequently recalculating the altered outcomes for every single Premier League fixture from this period.
Let us now examine the appearance of both the Premier League standings and the narrative of this campaign, under the premise that no set-piece goals were ever registered.
– 2026 World Cup squads ranked: Assessing all 48 national teams
– Italy only have themselves to blame for missing World Cup again
– Ranked: The 10 worst Premier League teams, relative to spending
The Initial Five Weeks: Liverpool Appear Poised to Reclaim Glory
Liverpool’s substantial summer expenditure at Anfield appears to be yielding dividends. The reigning champions hold a three-point advantage at the summit of the standings, having netted more goals than any other club in the division.
Following a closely contested and emotionally charged victory on the inaugural day against Bournemouth, Liverpool displayed the form that was so familiar from the preceding campaign, decisively defeating Newcastle 3-0 at St. James’s Park. Their sole minor setback across the initial five fixtures was a goalless stalemate, played on their home turf against Arsenal.
However, a familiar pattern emerges when Arsenal compete: draws are frequent. Pundits have started to ponder whether Mikel Arteta is evolving into his era’s Jose Mourinho — a coach adept at establishing a system that averts defeats yet struggles to secure sufficient victories to ever claim a league championship.
After five encounters, subsequent to their own considerable financial outlay, the North London side has surrendered merely one goal while registering five, yet this defensive approach has resulted in two triumphs and three stalemates. They currently occupy sixth position — trailing the leaders by four points.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Liverpool: 13 points, plus-7 goal differential
2nd: Tottenham: 10 points, plus-5 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 10 points, plus-2 GD
4th: Sunderland: 10 points, plus-2 GD
5th: Bournemouth: 10 points, plus-1 GD
Greatest beneficiaries in the absence of set pieces: Chelsea, Sunderland, Brighton, and Burnley each possess an additional two points
Greatest detriment: Everton hold two fewer points
Matches 6 through 10: Manchester City’s Resurgence
Following the overhaul of at least half their squad during the last two transfer periods, Manchester City at last appear to be regaining peak performance. Their goal difference of plus-14 stands as the league’s undisputed best.
Subsequent to suffering defeats in two of their initial three fixtures against Brighton and Tottenham, they have maintained an unbeaten streak across the subsequent seven games, securing five victories and two stalemates — away at Arsenal and at Aston Villa. They trail pace-setters Liverpool by a mere solitary point.
Despite succumbing to defeat in their season opener, courtesy of a last-gasp Estêvão goal at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool endured a challenging, fluctuating contest to triumph 1-0 against Crystal Palace, and they battled hard for a 1-1 draw with Manchester United at Anfield and a 2-2 deadlock with Brentford in the capital.
Liverpool’s fixture list is set to become less demanding, with away encounters at Newcastle and Chelsea already concluded, alongside home fixtures versus Arsenal and Manchester United, and challenging games against emerging mid-table teams like Bournemouth, Palace, and Brentford now completed. However, their immediate task is a trip to the Etihad for a crucial confrontation with Manchester City, pitting the top two sides against each other.
Arsenal have climbed to fourth position, trailing Liverpool by three points, and astonishingly, they have still allowed only one goal across 10 games. This could arguably be the most formidable defensive unit witnessed, and they remain the sole unbeaten squad in England’s premier division. Regrettably, their offensive output amounts to merely eight goals — the fifth-lowest tally in the league.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Liverpool: 21 points, plus-9 GD
2nd: Manchester City: 20 points, plus-14 GD
3rd: Tottenham: 19 points, plus-5 GD
4th Arsenal: 18 points, plus-7 GD
5th: Chelsea: 18 points, plus-3 GD
Primary benefactors: Liverpool, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest each possess an additional three points
Primary sufferers: Arsenal hold seven fewer points
Matches 11 through 15: Do Not Discount Arsenal Just Yet
Is a decline commencing at Anfield? Liverpool engaged Real Madrid in a goalless draw at home during the Champions League, subsequently enduring another 45 minutes without either team registering a goal against Manchester City.
This was anticipated to be an uninhibited, vibrant offensive unit, bolstered by all the talent acquired over the summer, yet some commentators have begun to question whether Liverpool’s manager, Arne Slot, was simply benefiting from the positive atmosphere of the Jurgen Klopp era in his debut season with the club. Is his iteration of Liverpool capable of producing the identical offensive potency as that of his forerunner?
Manchester City ultimately clinched the game, 2-0, thanks to two formidable long-distance shots by Nico Gonzalez and Jérémy Doku. Optimistic pundits propose that such infrequent, spectacular goals by players unaccustomed to scoring are more a matter of misfortune than anything else — but then Liverpool suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest in their subsequent fixture.
Liverpool have presently completed three entire matches without finding the net. They eventually regain their momentum — and revert to their characteristic form — with an exhilarating 3-2 victory against Leeds at Elland Road, however, we are now 15 contests deep into the campaign and the Premier
Alexander Isak, a player acquired for a club-record fee, has thus far failed to register a solitary goal.
Arsenal prolonged their undefeated streak across 14 fixtures and began to secure victories, notably a challenging 2-1 triumph away to Sunderland and a 1-0 road success against Chelsea, which ultimately became one of the campaign’s dullest contests following Moisés Caicedo’s expulsion in the 38th minute. They ultimately ascended to the league’s summit — only to fall back to second place after suffering a 2-1 defeat at the hands of their long-time acquaintance, Unai Emery, and Aston Villa.
Apart from a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle, Manchester City have been almost flawless following their initial season difficulties, a claim that cannot be made for their counterparts residing at Old Trafford. Manchester United have accumulated merely 21 points across 15 games, placing them in the lower half of the standings for the second consecutive year under Ruben Amorim’s leadership.
Subsequent to a 1-0 defeat against Crystal Palace, a budding, controversial notion starts to surface among certain ex-players and contemporary television figures: that the Glazer family ought to reclaim governance of the club from Jim Ratcliffe.
The Premier League’s leading quintet:
1st: Manchester City: 32 points, plus-20 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 30 points, plus-13 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 28 points, plus-8 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 25 points, plus-6 GD
T-5th:: Aston Villa and Crystal Palace: 25 points, plus-5 GD
Most advantaged clubs: Burnley possess six additional points, Liverpool five
Most disadvantaged clubs: Everton and Aston Villa hold five fewer points
Matchdays 16 to 20: A contest involving three frontrunners
Typically, a 1-1 stalemate on home turf against Wolves, who have accumulated six points after 20 games, represents the sort of result that jeopardizes a title bid. What if you then replicate that exact score two weeks later against Brighton at home? It’s at this juncture that everyone once more begins to question if Arsenal possess the psychological resilience required to ever truly clinch a significant trophy. Nevertheless, the Gunners reacted with a conclusive 3-1 victory against Aston Villa, whilst City embarked on a sequence of three consecutive ties: on the road against Forest and Sunderland, and at their home ground versus Chelsea.
Liverpool, conversely, have emerged victorious in four of their last five outings. During their encounter with Fulham, Harrison Reed netted what could arguably be the goal of the season — a plunging, spinning thunderbolt that marked his inaugural strike in almost three years, achieved with his first attempt of the campaign — yet it swiftly recedes from collective recollection. Ultimately, it merely served as a consolation effort in the concluding stages of a game Liverpool were already leading by a 2-0 margin.
After 20 fixtures, a three-way deadlock for the top position has materialized, and all anticipate one of the most thrilling championship contests in recent memory.
Slightly lower in the standings, Crystal Palace trail the fifth and (presumably) ultimate Champions League spot by only two points, notwithstanding the departure of Eberechi Eze to Arsenal during the summer. Every team globally desires to appoint Oliver Glasner as their manager, but he maintains immense contentment in his present role with Crystal Palace and refuses to entertain any inquiries regarding his prospects until the conclusion of the season. His principal objective is securing qualification for the Champions League.
All of the newly promoted squads are struggling to survive: Sunderland are rapidly descending the league standings, merely four points ahead of Leeds in 18th, whereas Burnley are positioned just one point above the relegation zone in 17th.
The Premier League’s leading quintet:
1st: Manchester City: 41 points, plus-26 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 41 points, plus-17 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 41 points, plus-14 GD
4th: Aston Villa: 37 points, plus-8 GD
5th: Chelsea: 33 points, plus-9 GD
Most advantaged clubs: Burnley possess eight additional points, Liverpool and Bournemouth seven
Most disadvantaged clubs: Arsenal and Sunderland hold seven fewer points
Matchdays 21 to 25: Two fresh coaches at Chelsea and Manchester United; merely two clubs lead the pack
Chelsea proprietors Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital evidently sought to dismiss Enzo Maresca approximately at the time of the Bournemouth fixture subsequent to the New Year — however, they were unable to proceed after a conclusive 2-0 victory, nor following a 1-1 away draw against Manchester City. Nevertheless, they ultimately severed connections with their head coach subsequent to a perplexing 2-0 loss away at Fulham.
Notwithstanding repeated assertions regarding the autonomy of the two BlueCo-owned clubs, they enlisted Liam Rosenior, the Strasbourg coach, to assume the role of Chelsea’s new manager.
Rosenior articulates himself like an individual who has absorbed all the misguided self-improvement literature, and footage surfaces depicting him urging his players to regard the soccer ball as though it were a sacred receptacle embodying the entirety of human wisdom. He further asserts that his role as a manager involves maturing men. Man-ager … understand? Universal expectation is for him to falter.
During his initial four matches at the helm, Chelsea netted 11 goals while allowing merely 1. The club now sits only four points behind the top spot, and just one point adrift of third-placed Liverpool, who have managed only three goals across their last five contests, the most recent being another one-sided 2-0 defeat to Manchester City. This particular instance, however, occurred at their home stadium.
Discussions concerning Slot’s appropriateness for the position have receded from prominence, and in their stead, a general agreement has formed regarding Liverpool: they are a competent squad, yet not entirely prepared to contend for a championship.
At Manchester United, Amorim was succeeded by Michael Carrick, who presided over United’s triumphs against City and subsequently Arsenal in his inaugural two games at the helm. Nevertheless, this was succeeded by a 2-2 tie against Fulham and then a narrow 1-0 victory over Tottenham, who saw a player dismissed in the 38th minute, have failed to secure a win since early December, and are presently only five points above the relegation zone.
Numerous individuals were captivated by the positive atmosphere surrounding Carrick’s initial two fixtures, but with United positioned ninth, it is evident that he serves as merely an interim manager.
The Premier League’s leading quintet:
1st: Manchester City: 49 points, plus-28 goal difference
2nd: Arsenal: 49 points, plus-20 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 46 points, plus-12 GD
4th: Chelsea: 45 points, plus-16 GD
5th: Aston Villa: 42 points, plus-7 GD
Most advantaged clubs: Burnley possess eight additional points; Liverpool and Bournemouth seven; Crystal Palace six
Most disadvantaged clubs: Everton hold eight fewer points; Arsenal, Manchester United, and Sunderland seven
Matchdays 26 to 31: You determine your own fate
At the foot of the standings, Burnley and West Ham are level with 28 points, with the former occupying 18th position owing to a superior goal difference. Tottenham, astonishingly, sit in 17th, yet they retain a three-point buffer courtesy of a last-gasp 1-0 victory at Anfield two weeks prior. Could it be that fresh manager Igor Tudor has discerned a solution? Leeds, similarly, are merely three points above the bottom three; they have failed to register even one goal across their past five fixtures.
Further up the rankings, the inclusion of an extra Champions League berth is significantly enhancing the league’s competitive fabric. As predicted before the campaign commenced, a distinct top four exists: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea stand as the sole clubs in the division boasting double-digit positive goal differentials.
However, beyond that? Indeed, there is only a two-point disparity separating fifth and eighth positions, and a five-point difference between fifth and 11th. Andoni Iraola is considered the prime candidate for any forthcoming significant managerial vacancy — whether in England or abroad — as his Bournemouth squad currently holds fifth place with seven games remaining, despite having lost 75% of their defensive players during the summer and their prominent forward, Antoine Semenyo, to Manchester City in January.
Some even regarded their latest fixture against Manchester United as a “loser departs town” scenario. Carrick’s United had ascended to fifth position owing to victories against fellow
Clubs aspiring for the Champions League include Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. However, Bournemouth’s triumph over United propelled the team to fifth position, which prompted many to conclude that if Iraola can defeat Manchester United with Bournemouth, then, indeed, he ought to be coaching Manchester United.
Currently occupying eighth place, Palace — trailing Bournemouth by two points, and Villa and United by a single point — sees Glasner grappling with maintaining cohesion. The team remains in contention even though their captain, Marc Guéhi, transferred to City in January.
Following a recent defeat to Leeds, the manager commenced yelling into the microphone, making imprecise claims about requiring reinforcement and the squad being deficient in options, until a Palace staff member softly spoke into his ear and indicated a document placed on the podium before him. Despite Palace being in eighth position, they possess an outstanding match compared to the three teams positioned higher in the standings.
Chelsea occupy third place, and Liverpool sit in fourth; both their campaigns have developed in a manner that has mysteriously hindered the media from ever truly resorting to sensationalism to characterize either club.
Chelsea is a youthful squad led by an inexperienced coach, whereas Liverpool’s offensive efforts have been hindered by Isak sustaining a leg fracture earlier in the campaign against Tottenham, and Mohamed Salah, who just declared his departure from the club after the season, finally experiencing an age-related dip in performance. Both clubs are set to participate in the Champions League next season, and both are anticipated to significantly improve.
Leading the standings, City have accumulated 61 points from 30 fixtures. They pressured the two emerging mid-tier teams, Bournemouth and Palace, into releasing their top talents during the mid-point of the campaign. Should they secure victory in all remaining matches, they will clinch the championship.
Their competitors, Arsenal, have allowed an astonishingly low 14 goals in total, but their offensive unit is no longer agonizingly forcing its way to finding the net for a maximum of one goal per match. They’ve found the net 40 times this term, equaling Chelsea’s tally and surpassing Liverpool’s by three. Only City boasts a higher goal count (53).
The North London club holds an advantage of two points at the pinnacle of the standings, yet they’ve also contested one additional fixture compared to City. Should they triumph in all remaining fixtures, they, too, will secure the title.
City’s upcoming trio of fixtures includes hosting Liverpool in the FA Cup, traveling to face Chelsea in the league, and then Arsenal visiting the Emirates on April 19th. If a league determined by standings can feature a decisive title encounter, then this fixture represents that.
The Premier League’s leading quintet:
1st: Arsenal: 63 points, plus-26 GD
2nd: Manchester City: 61 points, plus-34 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 53 points, plus-16 GD
4th: Liverpool: 52 points, plus-11 GD
5th: Bournemouth: 48 points, plus-2 GD
Most significant gainers: Burnley possess an additional eight points; Palace seven more; Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest six more
Most notable decliners: Everton possess a deficit of nine points; United and Villa eight fewer; Arsenal seven fewer
Furthermore, considering the clubs occupying second, tenth, and twentieth positions: Manchester City, Brighton, and Wolves would possess precisely identical point tallies, irrespective of the presence of set-piece situations.