Slated to commence in under three months, the 2026 FIFA men’s World Cup, hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, now faces heightened ambiguity. This stems from the escalating unrest in Iran and its adjacent nations, which ignited after President Donald Trump’s declaration on March 1 of “extensive military actions” against the Iranian government, casting increasing doubt over the involvement of national teams from that zone.
The strife has already witnessed the demise of long-serving Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in aerial assaults on Tehran, along with retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran, targeting Israel, regional U.S. military posts, and Gulf states. While Iran’s participation at the World Cup has been uncertain since the eruption of hostilities — they are scheduled in Group G, with matches against Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand — the volatility in the Gulf has now placed in question Iraq’s capacity to take part in this month’s intercontinental elimination rounds in Mexico.
So, what exactly is occurring, and how — and when — will there be any clarity regarding which squads will compete in the World Cup?
What’s the current status regarding Iran?
Within 24 hours of the initial missile strikes on Iran, a high-ranking representative from the Islamic Republic of Iran Football Federation (FFIRI) conveyed minimal hope that the team, which was the first non-hosting nation to secure a spot in this year’s World Cup, would compete in the championship.
“What is certain is that after this assault, we cannot be expected to anticipate the World Cup with optimism,” stated FFIRI official Mehdi Taj, who also serves as a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation.
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FIFA’s initial response indicated it would “observe” the circumstances, and sources informed ESPN of confidence that the situation would ameliorate naturally before the World Cup, which begins when Mexico confronts South Africa in Mexico City on June 11. Although the hostilities persist in the Persian Gulf, FIFA president Gianni Infantino delivered an encouraging report on Wednesday, stating after a meeting with President Trump that Iran would be “invited” to the tournament in the U.S., where they are due to play two matches in Los Angeles and one in Seattle.
“During the discussions, President Trump reaffirmed that the Iranian team is, naturally, welcome to contend in the tournament in the United States,” Infantino remarked.
However, Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said shortly after Infantino’s comments that the national squad would not participate in the World Cup. “Considering that this unprincipled administration has liquidated our leader, under no circumstances can we take part in the World Cup,” Donyamali asserted.
Does that mean Iran are definitely out?
No. This is clearly a rapidly evolving scenario, and with FFIRI under the purview of the Iranian government, the determination on whether Iran competes in the World Cup will ultimately rest with the country’s political figures.
President Trump has stated that he anticipates the hostilities will persist for between four to six weeks. If the resolution of the strife results in a governmental shift in Iran, it will have consequences for the soccer squad and those in charge of the federation. However, while it would be unwise to conjecture on what the picture will resemble in four to six weeks’ time, that period affords FIFA the opportunity to postpone a determination until the FIFA Congress in Vancouver on April 30.
Sources have indicated that FIFA continues to observe the situation, but that no decision regarding Iran needs to be taken at this juncture. If the hostilities continue to be ongoing at the time of the FIFA Congress, alternative arrangements for Iran’s prospective pullout, and substitute, will have to be devised.
What are the probable alternative choices?
Should Iran withdraw from the tournament, sources have affirmed that their substitute would nearly assuredly originate from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) in the form of the nation that was nearest to securing a berth. Currently, that nation would be Iraq, but they can secure their spot by triumphing in their intercontinental eliminator against either Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey, Mexico, on March 31.
If Iraq loses the eliminator championship, they would assume Iran’s position at the World Cup in the event of their proximate country pulling out of the competition. Should Iraq prevail in the eliminator and earn a place in the World Cup for the first time since 1986, the subsequent Asian squad eligible would be the United Arab Emirates, consequent to their AFC eliminator championship loss against Iraq last November.
What is the current impediment involving Iraq?
As a repercussion of the hostilities in the Gulf, Iraq’s players and their Australian coach, Graham Arnold, are incapable of journeying outside of the region, and the Iraq-based players are unable to obtain Mexican entry permits to allow them to undertake the trip to Monterrey.
Iraqi players stationed in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have been able to secure visas by calling at the Mexican Embassy in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but with Iraqi aerial routes restricted until at least April 1 and Mexico not having an embassy in Iraq, the home-based athletes cannot travel to a diplomatic mission in an adjacent country.
As a result of the challenges confronting his squad, Iraq coach Arnold has aborted a scheduled practice session in Houston, Texas, and has urged FIFA to defer the eliminator until closer to the World Cup. FIFA has not replied to an ESPN inquiry about that request.
“Right now we are contending with issues to extract our athletes from Iraq,” Arnold stated. “In my opinion, if FIFA were to delay the game it affords us adequate preparation time. Let Bolivia play Suriname this month and then a week before the World Cup, we play the victor in the U.S. — the victor of that match proceeds, and the defeated side returns home.”
Arnold added that such a delay could also permit FIFA to deliberate over a decision on Iran’s participation and potential substitute.
“In my opinion, it also gives FIFA more time to decide what Iran is going to do,” Arnold said. “If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup and it provides the UAE, whom we beat in qualifying, the opportunity to get ready for either Bolivia or Suriname.
“Our federation’s president, Adnan Dirjal, is toiling incessantly trying to plan and prepare to make everyone in Iraq’s aspiration realized, so we need this determination reached swiftly.”
How long can FIFA wait before making a determination?
There is no contemporary historical parallel of a team pulling out or being expelled from a World Cup. But in 1992, Denmark were granted a position at Euro ’92 by UEFA just 10 days before the start of the tournament in Sweden after Yugoslavia were expelled from the contest as a result of United Nations punitive measures due to armed confrontation in the Balkans. Denmark proceeded to triumph in the tournament.
Sources have informed ESPN that FIFA is ready to hold off for the situation in Iran to settle down prior to reaching a conclusive determination. In terms of crucial timelines, the result of the eliminators on March 31 — if they proceed — holds considerable weight, but definite determinations are improbable before the FIFA Congress on April 30.