Reports indicate that President Donald Trump and senior defense officials are apparently contemplating the deployment of land forces to Iran, with the goal of recovering the nation’s highly concentrated uranium. Nevertheless, the government has provided scant details regarding which forces would be stationed, the methodology for extracting the atomic substances, or their subsequent destination.
“Individuals will need to physically acquire it,” remarked Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a legislative session in recent weeks, commenting on the potential intervention.
Several signs suggest an intervention is imminent. The Wall Street Journal disclosed on Tuesday that the Department of Defense is poised to dispatch 3,000 combat-ready brigade personnel to the Middle East. (As of this publication, the directive has not yet been issued.) These forces would originate from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, which is proficient in “combined forced insertion maneuvers.” On Wednesday, Iran’s government spurned President Trump’s 15-point proposal to bring an end to the conflict. Furthermore, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the president “is ready to inflict severe retribution” in Iran should an accord not be achieved—a prospective action some legislators have apparently voiced apprehension about.
Utilizing open-source data and their personal expertise, a pair of specialists delineated the probable scope of a land-based intervention aimed at atomic facilities. They informed WIRED that any iteration of such a land-based intervention would prove extraordinarily intricate and present a substantial peril to the safety of U.S. personnel.
“I personally believe a land-based endeavor employing elite units backed by a more substantial contingent is exceptionally perilous and eventually impractical,” Spencer Faragasso, a principal research associate at the Institute for Science and International Security, shared with WIRED.
Atomic Aspirations
Any iteration of the intervention would probably span multiple weeks and entail concurrent maneuvers at various designated sites that are geographically dispersed, according to the specialists. Jonathan Hackett, an ex-operational expert for the Marines and the Defense Intelligence Agency, informs WIRED that up to 10 sites might be focused on: the Isfahan, Arak, and Darkhovin research reactors; the Natanz, Fordow, and Parchin enrichment facilities; the Saghand, Chine, and Yazd mines; and the Bushehr power plant.
The International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that Isfahan probably contains the bulk of the nation’s 60 percent highly enriched uranium, which could facilitate an autonomous atomic fission sequence, even though material suitable for weaponry typically comprises 90 percent enriched uranium. Hackett notes that the other two enrichment facilities might also possess 60 percent highly enriched uranium, and that the power plant along with all three research reactors could hold 20 percent enriched uranium. Faragasso underscores that any such provisions warrant scrupulous scrutiny.
Hackett states that eight of the 10 sites—solely excluding Isfahan, which is presumably undisturbed beneath the surface, and “Pickaxe Mountain,” a recently established enrichment facility near Natanz—were largely or partly interred following last June’s aerial bombardments. Prior to the conflict, Faragasso mentions, Iran re-filled the tunnel entrances to the Isfahan facility with soil.
The most hazardous iteration of a land-based intervention would necessitate American troops undertaking the manual extraction of nuclear material. Hackett indicates that this material would be contained as uranium hexafluoride gas within “sizeable concrete containers.” Faragasso adds that it’s uncertain as to the number of these vats that may have been fractured or impaired. At compromised locations, forces would need to transport excavation machinery and substantial gear capable of displacing vast quantities of earth to recover the contents.
A relatively safer variant of the intervention would still require land forces, according to Hackett. However, it would chiefly employ aerial assaults to seal atomic substances within their respective facilities. To guarantee atomic substances are unreachable in the immediate to intermediate future, Faragasso explains, would involve demolishing the access points of subterranean installations and preferably causing the collapse of their subterranean ceilings.
Preparing the Region
Hackett communicates to WIRED that, drawing from his background and all accessible public intelligence, President Trump’s discussions with Iran are “likely a deception” designed to afford an opportunity to position military personnel.
Hackett suggests that an intervention would probably commence with air attacks in the regions adjacent to the designated locations. These assault aircraft, he adds, would probably originate from the 82nd Airborne Division or the 11th or 31st Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU). The 11th MEU, designated as a “quick-reaction contingent,” and the 31st MEU, the sole Marine contingent consistently stationed overseas in key regions, are said to have both been dispatched to the Middle East.
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