FT Poll Stunner: Trump’s Approval Plummets to Record Low

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free

Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world

Key Takeaways

• **Erosion of Confidence Signals Economic Headwinds**: President Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted to a record low, with a significant majority of voters expressing pessimism about the economy and their personal finances. This broad erosion of consumer and business confidence threatens future spending and investment, factors closely watched by equity markets for signs of a slowdown.
• **Trade Wars and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Inflationary Pressures**: Widespread disapproval of the administration’s protectionist trade policies, coupled with rising borrowing costs and record-high fuel prices stemming from geopolitical conflicts, underscores mounting inflationary pressures. These factors are squeezing corporate margins, disrupting supply chains, and influencing central bank monetary policy outlook.
• **Midterm Elections Poised to Reshape Policy Landscape**: With Democrats gaining a substantial lead in voter preference and sentiment turning against Trump’s influence, the upcoming midterm elections could signal a significant shift in congressional control. Such a change could introduce policy uncertainty or lead to major shifts in fiscal spending, regulatory frameworks, and sector-specific legislation, impacting various market segments.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low, according to a new FT poll that lays bare how voters have soured on the US president’s handling of the economy and cost of living. This widespread discontent, particularly concerning economic management and the escalating cost of living, sends a clear signal to financial markets: consumer confidence, a critical driver of economic growth, is faltering. Investors typically react to such surveys by recalibrating expectations for future retail sales, corporate earnings, and overall GDP trajectory, potentially leading to downward revisions in growth forecasts.

With less than two months to go until November’s midterm elections, the latest nationwide poll conducted by Focaldata found just 33 per cent of registered voters approved of Trump’s performance as president — the lowest number recorded since the FT first started asking the question in May and a three-point drop from the previous month. This significant decline, especially heading into a crucial election cycle, amplifies political risk premiums across asset classes, as the market begins to price in potential shifts in policy direction.

The president’s approval rating among Republican voters also slipped by more than two points, to 72 per cent — another all-time low for the FT survey. A fracturing of support within the president’s own party suggests potential legislative hurdles ahead, making it more challenging to pass market-friendly policies or maintain a consistent economic agenda. This internal dissent could lead to increased policy uncertainty, a factor typically viewed negatively by investors.

The poll suggested that voters’ darkening sentiment on the economy and the cost of living was to blame for Trump’s dismal numbers, with most of those polled rejecting the president’s tariffs and trade policy. This broad rejection of protectionist trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, highlights significant market anxieties. Businesses operating within complex global supply chains face heightened uncertainty, increased input costs, and diminished access to international markets. Sectors heavily reliant on cross-border trade, such as manufacturing, automotive, and agriculture, are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, impacting their profitability and stock valuations.

The survey comes as the president appears unable to end his war in Iran, which has driven up US borrowing costs and prices for fuel and consumer goods over the past six months. The ongoing geopolitical entanglement in Iran, perceived as a significant source of instability, has demonstrably impacted energy markets and broader financial conditions. The conflict has directly contributed to a surge in crude oil prices, translating into higher US borrowing costs as inflation expectations rise. This inflationary pressure is acutely felt in the consumer price index and by businesses, squeezing profit margins and potentially dampening consumer discretionary spending.

On Friday, the US price of diesel, the workhorse fuel for American industry and agriculture, hit an all-time high of $5.85 a gallon, according to the AAA motoring group, threatening to send another wave of inflation through the world’s biggest economy. The soaring cost of diesel, a critical input for transportation, logistics, and heavy industry, poses a direct threat to corporate earnings across numerous sectors. Higher freight costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers or absorbed by companies, impacting retail prices, manufacturing profitability, and potentially slowing economic activity as businesses contend with reduced margins and consumers face higher prices for essential goods.

The poll’s findings will make for grim reading in the White House as Republicans seek to keep control of the US House and Senate in November’s midterms. While Trump will not be on the ballot, midterm elections are widely seen as a referendum on the current president’s leadership. For financial markets, the prospect of a legislative shift – potentially a divided government or a Democratic-controlled Congress – introduces considerable uncertainty regarding future fiscal policy, regulatory reform, and sector-specific legislation. Investors are already scrutinizing these polls for clues on potential tax changes, infrastructure spending, or shifts in environmental and healthcare policies.

Nearly two-thirds of registered voters told pollsters the economy was headed in the wrong direction, and 57 per cent said they were financially worse off under the Trump presidency — a four-point increase over last month, when 53 per cent of voters said they were worse off. This pervasive sentiment of economic pessimism among the electorate is a worrying sign for overall consumption and investment. When a majority of the population feels financially disadvantaged, it typically translates into more cautious spending habits, which can directly dampen corporate revenues for consumer-facing businesses and broader economic growth.

Among Republican voters, just 53 per cent said they approved of the president’s handling of jobs and the economy, a nearly 8-point drop from the previous month. Even within the core political base, a weakening of confidence in the administration’s economic stewardship could signal growing internal pressure for a change in strategy. Such a trend might lead to a less cohesive policy agenda, further complicating economic forecasting for businesses and investors.

On trade, 56 per cent of registered voters, including more than 60 per cent of independents and nearly one-third of Republicans, said they disapproved of Trump’s latest decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on roughly $20bn of Canadian goods. The move prompted retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa of up to 50 per cent on US imports, escalating the trade war and raising concerns about higher prices for consumers. This continuous escalation of trade tensions directly impacts global supply chains, creates significant uncertainty for multinational corporations, and contributes to inflationary pressures as import costs rise. Industries like agriculture, automotive, and metals are particularly exposed to these tariff cycles, risking disrupted trade flows and reduced profitability.

Trump has put himself at the heart of the Republican campaign heading into the midterms. The Republican National Committee will this coming week hold an unprecedented two-day midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, headlined by the president, to try to drum up support from voters. While a strong political showing could theoretically reassure markets of policy continuity, the poll data suggests a different outcome.

But the FT poll suggests the strategy may backfire. Forty-six per cent of voters, including more than half of independents, said Trump was making it harder for Republican congressional candidates to win in November. Forty-seven per cent of independents said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate. Registered voters gave Democrats a 7.5-point lead over Republicans when asked who they were likely to vote for, up from a 5-point lead last month. This growing lead for Democrats strongly suggests a potential shift in congressional power, which could lead to significant legislative changes. Financial markets will be closely monitoring election results for implications on sectors such as healthcare, energy, and technology, where regulatory and policy shifts under a new administration could be profound, potentially triggering sector rotations.

Republican candidates in battleground districts told the FT this week that they were anxious to see Maga Inc, the Super Pac that backed Trump’s presidential run, spend its $400mn campaign war chest to support them. In a filing on Saturday, Maga Inc disclosed it was spending $10mn on ads supporting Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. While campaign spending itself isn’t a direct market driver, the allocation of such significant funds highlights the high stakes of these elections, indirectly signaling the potential for policy shifts depending on the outcome.

“Although President Trump has always been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, the administration remains committed to implementing a proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and energy abundance,” a White House spokesman said. “The August jobs report is the latest proof that this agenda continues to create private-sector jobs and drive America’s reindustrialization — with more growth and relief ahead for everyday Americans.” This official narrative, emphasizing supply-side policies and job growth, attempts to counter the prevailing voter sentiment. While markets generally favor deregulation and tax cuts, the “temporary disruptions” from trade wars and geopolitical conflicts remain a significant concern, casting a shadow over the administration’s claims of sustained economic vitality and relief for consumers.

The FT poll was conducted online by Focaldata, a London-based, non-partisan research company, from August 28 to September 1. It reflects the opinions of 1,914 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Market Impact

The confluence of deteriorating presidential approval, widespread voter pessimism on the economy and living costs, and an intensifying trade war presents a challenging outlook for financial markets. The increasing likelihood of a significant shift in congressional power following the midterms introduces policy uncertainty across various sectors, from energy and healthcare to technology and industrials. Investors should brace for potential volatility as markets digest the implications of a divided government or a Democrat-led Congress, which could lead to changes in corporate tax rates, regulatory environments, and federal spending priorities. Furthermore, persistent inflationary pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts and trade tariffs will continue to squeeze corporate profit margins and influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, potentially leading to further interest rate hikes. Companies with high exposure to international trade and consumer discretionary spending are particularly vulnerable, while defensive sectors might see increased interest as investors seek stability amidst the growing political and economic headwinds.