Projections generated by the Ministry of Defence suggest that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will persistently be considerably costlier than traditional jet fuel for the immediate outlook.
Defence Minister Luke Pollard, in a parliamentary response provided to Conservative MP Richard Holden, stated that analysis conducted by the Royal Air Force and the MOD’s Directorate of Analytics calculates the costs of aviation fuels spanning from 2025 to 2040. Related: Philly’s $15 Millio…
These estimates indicate that conventional aviation turbine fuel, often referred to as Jet A-1, is anticipated to be approximately $0.56 per litre in 2025. This prediction then varies, before slowly increasing to about $0.69 per litre by 2040. Related: Rally Orbital Massager: T…
Conversely, sustainable aviation fuel is expected to continue being significantly pricier. The MOD calculates that SAF will be around $1.62 per litre in 2025, slowly climbing to approximately $1.81 per litre by 2040.
Consequently, a consistent cost differential will exist between these two fuel types. This analysis indicates that SAF will be priced slightly more than $1 per litre above conventional aviation fuel for the entire projected timeframe.
Based on this data, the disparity is calculated to be $1.06 per litre in 2025, decreasing marginally to approximately $1.02 per litre by the late 2020s, then recovering. By the late 2030s and extending into 2040, the anticipated variance attains around $1.12 per litre.
Pollard stated these figures stemmed from analysis carried out by RAF and MOD analysts, though they are prone to revision given market fluctuations.
“The Royal Air Force, alongside the Ministry of Defence Directorate Analytics, can offer an approximate per-litre cost for both Conventional Aviation Turbine and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) for each year from 2025–2040,” he stated.
“Nonetheless, the information presented below is prone to alteration, contingent upon fuel market volatility.”
The minister also pointed out that these figures are quoted in US dollars per litre, mirroring the manner in which oil and aviation fuels are commonly exchanged globally. The final expense for the UK would be contingent upon currency exchange rates at the time of procurement.
These forecasts highlight the financial hurdle involved in transitioning air fleets to less carbon-intensive fuels. While sustainable aviation fuels are formulated to diminish the overall carbon footprint relative to conventional kerosene, they remain substantially pricier to manufacture and deliver. For military aviation, this price disparity could become a major consideration if widespread implementation of SAF is sought among combat jets, cargo fleets, and training systems over the next few decades.