For those who might not yet be aware, I am the individual responsible for generating the fantasy football player forecasts here at ESPN. Despite some assertions that these forecast figures are automatically produced or arbitrarily determined, I can affirm that this is not the case. My methodology is extensive, incorporating a blend of quantitative computations and personal assessments. It is this latter aspect that makes this piece particularly valuable. At the commencement of every NFL season, I meticulously examine each team, scrutinizing historical patterns across the league, individual teams, coaching staff, and players. Subsequently, for individual players, I formulate anticipated shares for dropbacks, carries, and targets.
I have recently concluded this procedure and — consistent with previous seasons — compiled some observations. Presented below are my insights, along with a concise relevance to fantasy football for the 2026 season.
Ensure you also review my comprehensive 2026 NFL Forecast PDF Handbook, which is periodically revised during the entire offseason.
1. Having averaged 4.3 targets and 7.6 fantasy points per contest across his initial 38 NFL appearances, Michael Wilson experienced a breakthrough with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback throughout the concluding eight matchups of 2025, recording an average of 11 targets and 21.2 fantasy points per game. This period also overlapped with Marvin Harrison Jr. contending with physical ailments (Harrison registered a 7-83-0 receiving stat line from 11 targets in three incomplete games within that timeframe), and it’s pertinent to mention that Wilson’s receiving statistics in the trio of games where Harrison participated were not quite as strong (3-36-0, 2-52-1, 5-89-1). A fit Harrison (in conjunction with Trey McBride) is expected to prompt a more modest performance from Wilson; nevertheless, his output late last season was sufficient to merit WR3/flex consideration in upcoming drafts.
2. Lamar Jackson stands as one of history’s premier dual-threat signal-callers, however, his rushing prowess might not be as impactful as it once was. Jackson’s proportion of Baltimore’s planned rushing plays has declined over each of the last four campaigns (dropping from 25.9% in 2021 to 10.9% in the previous season). Admittedly, he was absent for four contests in 2025, yet his 67-349-1 rushing performance represented his lowest career output by a significant margin. Jackson has recorded merely a single carry within the opponent’s 5-yard line across the last two seasons. Positively, Jackson maintained a high scrambling frequency (8.4%), implying a potential slight resurgence if he remains fit in 2026.
3. Having been absent for almost the entirety of the initial half of 2025, Jalen Coker surpassed Xavier Legette and assumed a more significant offensive function alongside Tetairoa McMillan. Across Weeks 8-19 (encompassing 11 games, including postseason play), Coker participated in 73% of offensive snaps and received a 17.8% target allocation. His fantasy production was erratic (scoring less than 11.5 points in seven matchups), yet he reached his best form towards the end of the season (exceeding 14 points in four of his last six outings, including a 9-134-1 display versus the Rams in the playoffs). Coker’s robust conclusion to the season is promising, although his inaugural season followed a comparable pattern (surpassing 14 points on three occasions, but falling below 11 in the remaining nine games). A fit 2026 season might elevate Coker to an enhanced performance tier, however, flex-level output is his probable maximum potential, provided McMillan continues to dominate at least one-quarter (if not a greater proportion) of the targets within Carolina’s Bryce Young-helmed offense.
4. Having averaged 4.1 targets and 8.5 fantasy points per contest across his initial 14 NFL appearances, Colston Loveland surged to 12 targets (at least 10 in every game) and 20.0 fantasy points per game during his concluding four matchups of 2025 (including postseason action). To contextualize, only 12 other occurrences exist in NFL history where a tight end received 10 or more targets in four successive regular-season contests. This exclusive group includes: Kellen Winslow Sr., Jeremy Shockey, Shannon Sharpe, Brandon Pettigrew, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee, Tony Gonzalez (on four occasions) and Zach Ertz. This is a remarkably distinguished roster, and it’s significant that Shockey alone accomplished this feat in his debut season. Loveland commences his age-22 campaign poised for a substantial role alongside Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. A mid-tier fantasy TE1 status ought to be his baseline production.
5. On the topic of remarkable rookie tight ends, Harold Fannin Jr. managed to surmount David Njoku’s presence and a rotating cast of quarterbacks, delivering a 72-731-6 receiving stat line (with an additional 7-13-1 rushing) as a 21-year-old first-year player in the previous season. The 108 targets garnered by the third-round selection rank as the eighth highest ever for a rookie tight end (according to StatHead), eclipsed solely by Brock Bowers, Shockey, Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr., and Keith Jackson. Cleveland continues to grapple with quarterback challenges, however, with Njoku’s departure, Fannin has an avenue to slightly enhance his 21% target allocation.
6. George Pickens has just concluded a career-best season where he recorded a 93-1,429-9 receiving stat line from 138 targets, with all figures representing clear career bests. The fantasy realm’s current fifth-highest scoring receiver undoubtedly gained from CeeDee Lamb’s absence due to injury (a 24% target share, equating to 8.8 per contest, and 24.2 fantasy points per game during the four matchups Lamb was sidelined), nevertheless, his performance metrics when playing alongside Lamb were also robust. For instance: Across 12 complete games with Lamb, Pickens secured a 23% target share (8.3 per game) and averaged 16.1 fantasy points per contest, in contrast to Lamb’s 27% (9.8) and 16.6 PPG. Across the entire season, Pickens’ 16.1 PPG average would have placed him eighth among players at his position. He appears poised to be a formidable WR2 in 2026.
7. While J.K. Dobbins was active across Weeks 1-10 (10 contests), RJ Harvey managed 50 rushing attempts (20% of the team’s total) and 29 targets (9%), whereas Dobbins recorded 153 carries (60%) and 15 targets (4%). With Dobbins benched for the squad’s subsequent nine games (inclusive of postseason play), Harvey undertook 115 rushing attempts (55%) and 41 targets (13%). He posted an average of 10.0 fantasy points per game when Dobbins played, and 14.2 PPG in his absence, however, his 3.3 yards per carry over the concluding nine games was notably subpar. Given the return of Denver’s full backfield contingent for 2026, we anticipate a comparable usage pattern (potentially with a slightly increased role for Harvey in his sophomore year), which would restrict both players to flex-level fantasy output.
8. Troy Franklin’s allocation of targets decreased from 22% over 11 games preceding Denver’s Week 12 bye (yielding 12.0 fantasy points per game) to 11% across six healthy games subsequent to that period (resulting in 7.6 PPG). Currently trailing Courtland Sutton, recent acquisition Jaylen Waddle, and apparently second-year player Pat Bryant, Franklin is set to contend with individuals such as Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil’Jordan Humphrey for playing time and target opportunities. His fantasy relevance is now significantly diminished.
9. Detroit features a new offensive strategist in Drew Petzing. Throughout his three campaigns overseeing offensive schemes for Arizona, the Cardinals deployed two or more tight ends for a league-leading 43% of their offensive snaps. This dependence on tight ends contributed to McBride securing a substantial 26% target share during that period, yet we also observed output from Ertz before his 2023 injury, and Elijah Higgins showcased a 64-636-3 receiving stat line from 80 targets throughout Petzing’s tenure. Detroit already favors more robust offensive formations, and this trend might intensify further in 2026 with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams positioned as wideouts.
and LaPorta, Brock Wright and recent acquisition Tyler Conklin at the tight end position. If his back problems are resolved, the 25-year-old LaPorta appears to be a dependable, mid-tier TE1 with potential for greater achievement.
10. The Packers selected six pass catchers during Matt LaFleur’s initial six years in Green Bay (2019-24). The share of targets experienced minimal growth from Year 1 to Year 2 for any of those players, and here is the supporting data: Jayden Reed (17% as a first-year player, 16% in Year 2), Christian Watson (15% to 16%), Romeo Doubs (16% to 18%), Dontayvion Wicks (11% to 16%), Samori Toure (3% to 5%) and Amari Rodgers (1% to 2%). This is significant, as Matthew Golden (12% share as a rookie) and Savion Williams (3%) are both commencing their second seasons in Green Bay. Golden is the sole first-round selection of the group and, with Doubs gone, is primed for an expanded role. However, it’s fair to assume that he may not exceed an 18-20% target share, which would drastically curtail his fantasy potential. Similarly, Williams’ prospects for a second-year breakout are not strong.
11. In DeMeco Ryans’ trio of seasons with Houston, the Texans’ running back target percentages stood at 15%, 17% and, lately, 13%. All of these figures are significantly beneath the norm, and given the team’s robust wideout talent pool, it’s unlikely to foresee a substantial increase coming in 2026. David Montgomery and Woody Marks haven’t been major contributors in the aerial attack in current campaigns, and that is expected to persist, which will constrain their PPR potential.
12. During 2024, Brian Thomas Jr. participated in nine complete matchups with Trevor Lawrence. Thomas posted an average of 5.8 targets and 14.4 fantasy PPG over that period, before experiencing a significant surge to 10 targets and 19.3 PPG with Mac Jones as quarterback toward the end of the season. In the previous season, Thomas played 15 games with Lawrence and averaged 6.2 targets and 9.9 PPG, with improved output in the first half of the season preceding the addition of Jakobi Meyers and the rise of Parker Washington. Thomas carries a high-risk, high-reward profile.
13. Regarding Jaguars pass-catchers, Washington has an involvement in routes exceeding fifty percent in 21 games from the beginning of 2024. In those contests, he secured a 20% share of targets and posted an average of 12.2 fantasy PPG. Indeed, in six games with Meyers, Thomas and TE Brenton Strange all playing in the previous season (one of which Washington exited due to injury), Washington handled 48 targets (26% share), as opposed to 40 for Meyers (21%), 30 for Strange (16%) and 27 for Thomas (14%). This encompassed a series of four consecutive contests with at least nine targets and a minimum of nineteen fantasy points concluding the season. Washington, a 2023 sixth-round selection, seems to have solidified a significant position in Jacksonville, however, he will contend with the previously mentioned trio and, partially, Travis Hunter for pass opportunities.
14. Running back targets have been scarce for Chargers running backs with Greg Roman directing the offensive strategy during the last two campaigns. Throughout those periods, Los Angeles backs secured target percentages of 11% and 13%, both of which positioned among the lowest in the league and significantly beneath the 2025 NFL average of 18%. The inquiry arises: will this trend persist with Justin Herbert at quarterback, or will it rise with Mike McDaniel orchestrating the plays? Past trends indicate the latter. In 2020 (Herbert’s debut season) with Shane Steichen calling plays, Chargers RBs received a 25% share of targets. With Joe Lombardi, it was 19% in 2021 and 25% in 2022. It fell to 15% with Kellen Moore in 2023, though that’s unsurprising in a Moore system. (He has never seen running back targets exceed 18%.) McDaniel’s four Miami offenses posted an average of a 20% RB target share (at least 20 percent each of the past three seasons), and that does not account for 3% to fullbacks. Admittedly, McDaniel was utilizing De’Von Achane during three of those years, but Omarion Hampton joined the professional ranks as a proficient pass-catcher, with 38 receptions in 12 games in his concluding year at North Carolina. Anticipate increased involvement in the aerial attack for Hampton, which further solidifies his potential for a breakthrough.
15. Kyren Williams‘ proportion of the Rams’ planned rushing plays during the last three campaigns stood at: 71% (2023), 75% (2024), 56% (2025). Williams’ utilization was clearly reduced, but it was partially compensated by an increase in both ground and aerial productivity. Williams merely decreased from 16.7 fantasy PPG in 2024 to 16.0 in 2025 and, considering the running back group’s performance the previous season, it’s reasonable to anticipate Blake Corum to continue as a significant contributor in the ground attack. Williams appears to be a solid RB2 option in a top-tier Rams offensive unit.
16. Regarding the Rams’ running back corps, Sean McVay has served the team for nine years, and his running backs have managed a meager 13% share of targets throughout that period. The unit has consistently fallen within the 10-13% bracket for each of the last seven campaigns and has never surpassed 20%. It is evident that Williams, who has never exceeded 36 receptions in a season, and Corum are improbable to experience an increase in targets this season.
17. Vikings chief coach Kevin O’Connell originates from the McVay coaching lineage, so this should be unsurprising: During O’Connell’s quadrennial tenure in Minnesota, Vikings RBs have secured a 14% share of targets, consistently within the 12-17% bracket across all four seasons. In its current configuration, Aaron Jones Sr. would manage the majority of those opportunities, as Jordan Mason is an insignificant participant in the aerial attack. Nevertheless, if the Vikings acquire a running back via the draft, this detail will be significant as we assess that running back’s PPR prospects.
18. Regarding Minnesota, we shall examine the offense with new signal-caller Kyler Murray at quarterback. Observe the proportion of Arizona’s offensive touchdowns originating from throws during Murray’s time (commencing in 2019 and omitting a 2025 campaign in which he sat out 12 contests): 53%, 55%, 53%, 53%, 51%, 54%. Conversely, chief coach and offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell’s four Minnesota offenses have recorded 70% of scores via passing plays, which is second highest, trailing solely the Bengals’ Zac Taylor since 2022 (at least 35 games orchestrated). Murray has never concluded a season among the top 10 in aerial yardage or scoring throws and has cracked the top 20 in YPA on one occasion (2021). It is possible O’Connell might unleash potential in the 28-year-old quarterback, but it is probable that his abilities will restrict the team’s aerial attack. That’s troubling for the fantasy prospects of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
19. Alvin Kamara is approaching his 31-year-old campaign and, irrespective of his team affiliation, there’s scant cause to think it will conclude with a robust
fantasy display. During the last ten years, the following 31-or-older RBs have achieved a top-30 fantasy season: Frank Gore (12th in 2016), Darren Sproles (24th in 2016), Frank Gore (19th in 2017), Marshawn Lynch (24th in 2017), Adrian Peterson (19th in 2018), Raheem Mostert (fifth in 2023) and Derrick Henry (eighth in 2025). Many of these rushers possess a distinct playing style compared to Kamara, and the pair who attained a top-30 placement in the last seven years largely depended on scores (Henry 16, Mostert 21). Kamara has not surpassed nine touchdowns in any season since 2020 and registered only one score in the previous season while also experiencing a significant decline in pass-catching involvement (a personal record low of 39 targets).
20. Across 18 complete professional contests, Malik Nabers commands an substantial 35% target share. This translates to 11.3 per match, and he’s recorded an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game during that period. Nabers has a different signal-caller (Jaxson Dart threw only three passes his way last season), a different head coach (John Harbaugh) and a different offensive strategist (Matt Nagy) and is recuperating from a ruptured ACL, so numerous fluctuating elements are present here, but the 22-year-old and former No. 6 draft pick nonetheless retains premier potential.
21. New Steelers head coach and offensive playcaller Mike McCarthy has an extensive background of underutilizing the running back role in aerial attacks. In fact, his running back target percentage stands at 14% (15% including fullbacks) since 2012 and never exceeded 18% throughout any of those dozen seasons. (Note: The league average for running backs was 19% in the prior season.) Likewise, McCarthy’s offensive schemes consistently failed to surpass a tight end target allocation of 24% over that timeframe. All of this is significant, as the 2025 Steelers displayed target percentages of 25% for running backs and 29% for tight ends. McCarthy’s prior performance indicates both figures are likely to decrease, a situation that will aid a revamped wide receiver corps that now includes Michael Pittman Jr. but constrain the PPR production of Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
22. Including the playoffs, Christian McCaffrey accumulated a substantial 450 touches in the previous season. This ranks as the fourth highest tally since 2011 and just shy of Saquon Barkley’s 482 in 2024, representing the highest number a rusher has managed since DeMarco Murray’s 497 in 2014. From 2011 onwards, there have been 16 occasions where a running back hit the 400-touch mark (including the playoffs). Omitting Le’Veon Bell (notorious for missing the 2018 season), our cohort of 14 running backs subsequently averaged 12.6 games (five participating in every match) and 18.0 fantasy points per game in the subsequent regular season. Ten out of the 14 experienced a decrease in fantasy PPG and merely five managed to replicate their top-five fantasy scoring status. Potentially the most troubling factor is age. Among the five who again achieved top-five scoring, four were aged 26 or less (Ezekiel Elliott 24, Ray Rice 25, Derrick Henry 26, Bell 25). The sole deviation is Marshawn Lynch (28), who was younger than McCaffrey’s projected age next season (30), and Lynch just crossed the 400-touch benchmark (403). Given his unique abilities and deployment within Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme, McCaffrey stands as an anomaly, so it’s conceivable he might defy historical trends, yet a clear element of risk persists.
23. George Kittle (torn Achilles during last season’s playoffs) is expected to be absent for a portion of the start of the 2026 season. This places Jake Tonges as the 49ers’ primary tight end. Kittle sat out seven complete contests in the previous season (Weeks 2-6, 17, 20). During those games, Tonges received a 17.9% share of targets (6.6 per game) and recorded a receiving stat line of 34 receptions, 328 yards, and 3 touchdowns. This equates to 11.8 fantasy points per game, a figure that would have placed him eighth among all tight ends in the prior season, surpassing prominent names such as Fannin, Kelce, Warren, and Jake Ferguson. Tonges will contend for a spot among the lower-tier TE1s for the duration of Kittle’s absence.
24. During 13 joint appearances last season, Tony Pollard managed 54% of the Titans’ offensive plays, 63% of the planned carries, and 8% of the targets, while Tyjae Spears took 46% of the plays, 26% of the rushing attempts, and 12% of the targets. Pollard posted an average of 11.1 fantasy points per game, in contrast to Spears’ 8.6. In 2024, Pollard managed 62% of the predetermined rushes and 12% of the targets, compared to Spears’ 27% and 10%, respectively (Pollard 11.9 PPG, Spears 9.1 PPG). Given the retention of this same pair for 2026, a comparable usage pattern is anticipated. Pollard represents the favored fantasy choice, although the 28-year-old is merely a flex option with limited upside.
25. When evaluated on a per-match foundation, Terry McLaurin has commanded a target share within the 21.8-24.5% spectrum across all six of his NFL seasons. Indeed, before averaging 6.0 targets per game during an injury-riddled 2025 campaign, he recorded averages of 7.5, 7.1, 7.7, 7.0, and 7.4 targets per game in the preceding five seasons. This demonstrates remarkably steady utilization, though somewhat modest given his track record. Alongside a healthy Jayden Daniels and a new offensive coordinator in David Blough, McLaurin emerges as a premier rebound prospect and is ideally categorized as a mid-to-lower-tier WR2.