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Sir Keir Starmer has exhorted his parliamentary members and campaigners to inundate the thoroughfares of south-east Manchester this Thursday. His objective is to convince weary Labour backers to remain loyal to the party and thereby avert a catastrophic defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
This fiercely contested three-way race carries significant political peril for Starmer and could be decided by the narrowest of margins. An Opinium survey this week positioned Labour and the Greens in a tie at 28 points, with Reform UK closely following at 27.
Starmer issued a rousing appeal on the eve of the poll, stressing that only his party can prevent Nigel Farage’s Reform from bringing the politics of “resentment and disunity” into a city that has been a Labour bastion for almost a century.
While a Reform victory would deal a substantial blow to Starmer, the prospect of a Green triumph instills the greatest apprehension within the prime minister’s inner circle. This outcome would serve as an ominous indicator of the left-wing vote fragmenting, potentially jeopardizing numerous Labour seats in the forthcoming general election.
Starmer’s argument in Gorton and Denton is that casting a vote for the Green Party is futile and will enable Reform to win. However, the Greens assert that they—rather than Labour—are better positioned to harness urban discontent and represent the most effective means of defeating Farage.
In the previous general election, the Greens secured 6.7 percent of the national vote and four seats in Westminster. The party also finished second in 40 constituencies, 18 of which were located in London. In all but one of these seats, Labour was the party they trailed.
In the immediate future, a Labour defeat in Gorton and Denton during the early hours of Friday is improbable to trigger another round of leadership speculation. Starmer successfully navigated what appeared to be a potential coup earlier this month, and most Labour MPs seem fatigued by the experience.
“The tinder is damp,” remarked one minister, suggesting that Labour MPs had recognized that the nation, let alone the business community and the City, was not amenable to a prolonged leadership contest.
An ally of Starmer stated: “Matters were settled a couple of weeks ago. People demonstrated they did not wish to emulate the Tories, who constantly change leaders.” Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, found himself isolated after advocating for the prime minister to step down.
Nevertheless, a Labour loss in the Greater Manchester constituency—which it won with a majority exceeding 13,000 in 2024—would still diminish the prime minister’s authority and foster disloyal sentiments within the party ahead of a more extensive series of “midterm” elections across the UK on May 7.
Labour is particularly concerned about the potential ramifications any Green victory could have for the May elections. A Labour councillor in Greater Manchester disclosed that campaigners were genuinely “apprehensive” that the Green candidate Hannah Spencer, a tradesperson, might prevail.
The Greens anticipate deploying 2,000 campaign operatives on the ground this Thursday to endeavor to mobilize the party’s voters.
“Everyone I know is hoping Reform wins and we come in second,” the councillor noted. A second Greater Manchester councillor predicted that a Spencer win could initiate a “Green surge of council seats” in May, particularly in regions of the country where the party currently has minimal representation.
Luke Tryl, from the think-tank More in Common, commented: “The most unfavorable outcome for Labour is either a Green victory or a Reform victory with the Greens in second place.”
Tryl explained that such a result would not only reinforce the tendency towards a fracturing of the left-wing vote—mirroring the Conservatives’ erosion of support on the right to Reform—but it would also undermine Starmer’s primary electoral message.
“It renders it much harder for Labour to pursue a ‘Macron strategy,’ which is to say, ‘regardless of how frustrated progressives might be with us, it is either us or Reform, and therefore you must grudgingly support us’.”
A Labour defeat would also re-ignite discussions regarding the prudence of Starmer’s associates in preventing the popular Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, from standing as the party’s candidate in the by-election.
Starmer engaged in “conciliation talks” with Burnham this week, though this is unlikely to shield the prime minister from criticism. Even Labour’s adversaries in Gorton and Denton acknowledge that the mayor would likely have secured the seat.
Professor Rob Ford from Manchester University asserted that a Burnham candidacy would have “instantly” resolved the “divided left” issue because he would have been perceived as the unequivocal anti-Reform option.
Labour’s candidate Angeliki Stogia can still emerge victorious, according to party activists, and Starmer’s campaign apparatus is extensive and well-equipped with detailed electoral intelligence. Teams on the ground insist that hesitant voters are gradually swinging towards Labour.
However, if the left-wing vote genuinely splits down the middle, then Reform’s candidate Matt Goodwin, a controversial anti-immigration commentator, could emerge triumphant.
A result in Gorton and Denton is anticipated around 4 am on Friday morning, but if the outcome is close, as surveys suggest, there could be recounts and a delayed announcement.
Starmer, Farage, and the Green leader Zack Polanski will all be consulting Friday’s train schedules to Manchester for the customary victory celebration, but it remains a matter of conjecture which one will be appearing.